Snap elections to the Ukrainian parliament have taken place. They were surprising not only for their results. It's already clear that the elections have launched a power struggle between Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
Absolutely everyone was wrong about the election forecasts, and even the exit polls differed from the actual results. But now the picture has become clearer, and it's possible to take a quick look at the future structure of the Rada.
First of all, Petro Poroshenko's bloc and Arseniy Yatsenyuk's People's Front will receive roughly equal votes. Neither leading player will secure a majority on their own, and that's generally a good thing. For the blocs and parties that have already won, as well as those running for majority seats, this is a dream come true: the chances of securing a bargain during the spectacular spectacle known as the "coalition" are increasing.
For the first time in Ukraine's history, there will be no communist faction in the Rada. It's also noteworthy that the Opposition Bloc won. Its clear result, free from traditional vote-rigging, reflects the fact that not all Ukrainians want to join Europe.
Incidentally, the results from the single-member constituency can be added to the OB vote share. A significant number of "old-timers" who are about to win seats indicate that not all citizens are happy with the changes.
Overall, the Rada turned out to be pro-European (as the president claimed), but with a Coca-Cola flavor. It will be attended not only by the Kremlin's fifth column—the OB.
Samopomich's list is full of people (don't bother looking past 33rd place) who were acquired with grants from "donors," primarily the International Renaissance Foundation. All these grant-hungry lawyers, unknown before the elections, are nothing more than a State Department lobby—a sixth column in parliament, to put it bluntly. And a couple of Kolomoisky's men on top of that won't ruin the hamburger's flavor...
The majority and the "golden share"
No one expected Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk to reach an agreement immediately after the elections. But today it's already clear that the negotiations are dragging on. The reason for this is the BPP's failure and the People's Front's first place on the party list.
The success has truly gone to the frontline soldiers' heads. In particular, they have already put forward claims to the post of prime minister and ministerial portfolios—the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Finance, Justice, and the Minister of Cabinet of Ministers. Pavlo Petrenko (Read more about it in the article Pavel Petrenko, the "pocket" boy of the Yatsenyuk "Family") was so inspired that he declared the need to build a majority based on Yatsenyuk's political force. By default, the base gets the juiciest positions.
Poroshenko's response was, as they say, symmetrical. The president wants the entire security bloc in exchange for the prime minister's post. Furthermore, he's not opposed to filtering bills from the coalition program through the executive reform committee, which is effectively the Presidential Administration. Naturally, almost every legislative initiative could be included in the coalition package.
Another reason for the delay is the understanding that neither the BPP nor the People's Front will be able to form a majority on their own, even with the help of Samopomich and Batkivshchyna satellites. Therefore, they will have to work closely with the approximately 100 independent MPs.
The vote count is still ongoing. However, it's safe to say that the BPP, including its majoritarian candidates, will receive 140-150 seats. Experts estimate that the People's Front will receive 80-90 seats. Samopomich can expect 30-32 seats. And Batkivshchyna will receive 17-19 seats.
At the same time, we believe Samopomich will be unable to play the role of a "golden share" simply due to its dependence on external influences. The State Department, like the EU, will strongly recommend negotiating a coalition, and Samopomich will join any configuration. Due to its microscopic size, the Batkivshchyna faction will be unable to influence events.
However, (assuming the exclusion of Lyashko's OB and RP factions), independent candidates from the majoritarian "swamp" will play a key role in forming the coalition. Soon, smaller deputies will rally around those with deep pockets, and parliamentary groups will emerge. Such "magnets" have already, one might say, become deputies: Sergei Klyuyev, Igor Yeremeyev, Konstantin Zhevago, and others.
The breakthrough of the five-member, intransigent Transcarpathian clan is noteworthy. Some Kharkiv members, possibly the Volyn group (Eremeyev and Lytvyn's men), and the remnants of the Donetsk group will also make it through. They will become the holders of the notorious "golden share."
According to our information, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk have already begun competing to win over the majoritarian candidates. The stakes here are preserving their business structures, while for some, personal security guarantees are crucial. From this perspective, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk's chances are roughly equal. As president, Poroshenko is independent of the will of the deputies; his term is defined by the Constitution. This makes the president a strong player. As prime minister, Poroshenko has a shorter tenure but is more dependent on the will of major players in parliament. This should suit the latter just fine.
Chained by one chain
Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are doomed to remain together, gritting their teeth. And it's not that blackmailing them by leaving the coalition will be difficult due to a vote deficit. Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk share a common bond: dependence on external influences. The West is interested in stabilizing the situation in Ukraine, and any hysteria here could destabilize the situation. In any case, this parliament is needed as long as it fights corruption and opens markets to Western capital, primarily land.
However, in the event of a conflict, Yatsenyuk loses. The president puts an end to the Rada's dissolution, and even its self-dissolution. As a result, Poroshenko will remain in office with full powers, and Yatsenyuk will run again. On the other hand, the Constitution provides for a moratorium on the dissolution of the Rada elected in early elections for exactly one year (Part 2 of Article 90 of the Constitution). If Arseniy Petrovich behaves well as he becomes prime minister, he will be given a chance to remain in office for the same amount of time, and even a little longer.
This will be a quiet, behind-the-scenes, but fierce struggle for power. First, we'll see a haggling over portfolios. Of particular interest to our protagonists are the security ministers, including the SBU, as well as the finance and fuel and energy blocs. A scramble for certain Verkhovna Rada committees, whose role has increased under the current distribution of powers, is also expected.
A noteworthy fact: the budget committee has disappeared from the list of committees traditionally given to the opposition. Poroshenko would like to retain it, but it will likely go to Yatsenyuk's people.
However, it's too early to talk about specific positions—the portfolio distribution phase could drag on. According to the Constitution (Articles 82 and 83), the deadline for forming a coalition is exactly two months. Any adjustments and unexpected developments are possible during this period.
The next stage of the war is the process of amending the Constitution. As News24UA previously mentioned, Poroshenko needs full powers, counting on a second term. This is why he has launched another operation on the Constitution, although the process is currently mothballed.
But such a "reform" is extremely disadvantageous to Yatsenyuk. He will block any attempts to amend the Constitution to strengthen presidential power. At least for now. For obvious reasons, he himself dreams of an office on Bankova Street. However, a presidency without sufficient powers is not attractive enough. Therefore, Yatsenyuk will likely revive the constitutional "reform," but only when his chances of victory become clear.
Dmitry Lyutkevich,news24ua
Subscribe to our channels in Telegram, Facebook, Twitter, VC — Only new faces from the section CRYPT!