Ukraine's energy sector is an overregulated, rundown industry controlled by oligarchs. In developed countries, a modern, dynamic energy sector drives the economy, stimulating production, employment, and technology. The domestic energy sector's goals are different: squeezing the maximum possible profit from thermal power plants acquired almost for nothing, while investing the bare minimum in development.
Ukraine's energy sector is an overregulated, dilapidated industry controlled by oligarchs. In developed countries, a modern, dynamic energy sector drives the economy, stimulating production, employment, and technology. The domestic energy sector's goals are different: squeezing maximum profits from thermal power plants acquired almost for nothing, while investing minimally in development. Changing the existing system is difficult—the circle of stakeholders with vested interests in the status quo is too broad. But if we are truly talking about achieving energy independence, we need to change not only tariffs, management, and company owners; we also need to reshape the direction of the Ukrainian energy sector and its conceptual vision for its future.
The unified energy system (UES), with its advantages and disadvantages, was developed back in the USSR. Its advantages include the ability to transmit power to consumers from remote generating systems, increasing the reliability of power supply for businesses and other consumers. A disadvantage of the UES is significant energy losses due to a less-than-perfect transmission system.
Going forward, it is necessary to preserve the advantages of the integrated power system and minimize its disadvantages. For example, due to the low capacity of the integrated power system, it is impossible to operate at full capacity at several nuclear power plants, which generate cheaper electricity. And it is certainly cheaper to expand the capacity of the integrated power system than to build new power units at nuclear power plants. Furthermore, with virtually all generating units operating within the integrated power system, including nuclear power plants, thermal power plants, and renewable energy plants, a collapse of the Ukrainian integrated power system is impossible.
Experience shows that a good solution has been found for thermal power plants under single ownership: tenders for the modernization of power units that have almost completely exhausted their service life. Modernization involves replacing virtually all heating surfaces, heaters, pumps, and, in some cases, turbine blades. In reality, only turbine blade replacement is considered modernization, as it allows for a 3-4% increase in power unit efficiency. The remaining equipment and heating surface replacements simply allow for capital repairs to be carried out not at the expense of the company's own profits, but at the expense of electricity consumers—in other words, for free. After all, depreciation charges were already included in the cost of electricity.
In this context, it's useful to understand the components of the cost of consumed electricity. If the cost per kilowatt-hour is taken as 100%, then the cost of the coolant at thermal power plants burning fossil fuels accounts for approximately 80%, while the remaining 20% is comprised of equipment depreciation, staff salaries, taxes, and the cost of electricity for internal needs. Abroad, flue gas cleaning costs are also included, which, combined with higher wages, makes electricity more expensive.
Reducing the cost of electricity is possible. This can be achieved by increasing the efficiency of the power unit or by using renewable energy sources, which have zero cost.
Unlike current Ukrainian power units, which achieve 33–35% efficiency, new power units with efficiencies of approximately 60% are already in operation abroad (Germany and Japan). This increased efficiency is achieved through the use of supercritical steam. Unfortunately, this energy development direction is currently unavailable in Ukraine due to the lack of heat-resistant steel, equipment, pipelines, valves, and other resources.
An alternative option for energy development at the present stage is the use of renewable energy sources, which include: hydropower, wind energy, solar energy and biomass in the form of forestry or agricultural waste.
Ukraine's hydropower sector has almost exhausted its capacity to build large hydroelectric power plants. Further development is only possible through modernization or replacement of old equipment, as well as through greater use of small rivers without the need for dams.
The use of organic waste in wood processing allows us to meet the needs of some regional energy consumers. Agricultural waste also has similar potential. However, this area requires a more thorough assessment, as this waste is a potential organic fertilizer. Excessive burning of agricultural waste (straw, etc.) will lead to soil depletion.
The two most promising areas for Ukraine are wind energy and solar energy. Let's take a closer look. For wind turbines to operate profitably, wind speeds must be at least
3 m/s. In Ukraine, such conditions are found on the coasts of the Black and Azov Seas, in the Carpathians, and in eastern Ukraine.
The advantage of wind turbines is that they are constructed quickly and have relatively low capital costs per 1 kW of generated energy – up to 500 euros.
Proponents of this direction of energy development in Ukraine even propose eliminating individual reservoirs on the Dnieper and installing wind turbines in their place, which will generate more electricity than the hydroelectric power plants that are decommissioned.
I would like to warn the proponents of such ideas: a huge amount of radioactive sludge has accumulated in the reservoirs, which is best left undisturbed until the radionuclides contained within have completely decayed naturally.
Another very important issue requiring objective consideration by regulatory authorities is the environmental safety of wind turbines, as, according to some experts, the operation of the installation generates low-frequency sounds that are inaudible to the ear, but which negatively impact not only people but also animals.
Currently, the most attractive direction for energy development in Ukraine is the use of solar energy.
Today, the most widely used systems are semiconductor photovoltaic power plants (SPPP), with an efficiency of 8–12%, as well as tower-type solar power plants using a traditional thermodynamic cycle, which provide an efficiency of 15–16%.
Disadvantages of solar power plants include limited capacity for energy storage, the inability to generate electricity during peak morning and evening hours, and during cold periods. Furthermore, the power generated by a solar power plant, as well as the frequency of the power generated by a tower-type solar power plant, depend on the current insolation conditions.
These shortcomings can be eliminated by using a solar-hydrogen power plant (SHPP), which involves splitting water into its components—hydrogen and oxygen—and storing them in storage facilities, enabling electricity generation not only during peak hours but also at night. The proposed SHPP can be constructed using only domestically produced components, ensuring the complete independence of this energy sector.
The estimated efficiency of the specified hydroelectric power plant, according to my estimates, is expected to be at the level of 50%, and the specific capital costs will be from 500 to 700 euros/kW, with a subsequent reduction during serial production of the equipment.
Most of Ukraine's territory has an insolation level of 1–1,2 kW/m², which is sufficient for cost-effective electricity generation. According to estimates, a hydroelectric power plant could generate approximately 2 MW of electricity per hectare of solar power.
The most attractive areas for the placement of hydroelectric power plants are those with long periods of insolation—2200–2500 hours/year—which will allow not only to generate electricity for current needs, but also to accumulate it for periods without insolation.
It makes sense to connect hydroelectric power plants to the integrated power grid, which will enhance the reliability of the entire system. Such plants can also be located near regional electricity consumers if available land not used for agricultural purposes is available. Small consumers should be supplied with power from autonomous units located on rooftops, which will minimize energy losses during transportation.
A major advantage of power plants operating using renewable energy sources is their environmental friendliness and independence from imported energy sources, which is a real path to complete energy independence for Ukraine.
However, there are a number of factors without which the implementation of these plans will be impossible.
Firstly, the political will of the country's leadership to achieve energy independence, as well as the desire to ensure a high standard of living for the Ukrainian economy and the population, and not for individual oligarchs.
Secondly, it is necessary to develop a new Energy Development Strategy, which should propose ways to achieve complete energy independence for Ukraine.
Thirdly, it is necessary to urgently resolve the issue of financing innovative work that ensures energy independence, since without its implementation it is impossible to achieve a positive result in this matter.
Fourthly, it is necessary to strengthen (reorganize) the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry, since in its current composition it cannot ensure the fulfillment of the assigned task.
Is there political will on the part of the country's leadership? It's not yet clear. In his ten-minute address to the nation, the former prime minister declared energy independence achieved, but this "independence" concerns changes to the procurement of Russian natural gas and nothing more.
The need to develop a new Energy Development Strategy stems from the fact that the draft strategy previously proposed by the Ministry of Energy doesn't even mention the need to achieve energy independence for Ukraine. The proposed strategy calls for two five-year plans to improve the domestic electricity market, followed by ten years to develop the European market. The only unknown is what achievements we can compete with there. Europe is focusing on clean energy, but we have nothing to boast about. Furthermore, Europe is rapidly developing renewable energy sources, but we have nothing to be proud of here either.
If things go well (awareness is gained, funding issues are resolved, etc.), there will be a transition period during which old nuclear and thermal power plant units will continue to serve their full lifespan.
Decommissioning of nuclear power plants will be a serious challenge, as it requires significant expenditures on radioactive waste reprocessing. Funds for this purpose must be allocated now, using electricity tariffs.
During the transition period (10-15 years), it is also advisable to modernize the power units of thermal power plants that are currently in operation. The goal of such modernization should be to improve the economic and environmental performance of the power units. For example, gas-oil power units that have been idle for a long time still have some useful life. Such power units can be used with natural gas or through in-cycle coal gasification. A preliminary assessment of potential fuel savings from converting boilers at Kharkiv CHPP-5, for example, from natural gas to Australian coal, showed that they could amount to UAH 1,1 billion per year at current gas prices.
$250 per 1000 nm3, and coal - $100/t. Australian coal (6,4 Gcal/t) was used in the calculations due to its low ash content (~8%) and sulfur content (0,8%).
Converting gas-oil boilers to coal is possible, but it requires private and public thermal power plants to address the issue of coal gasification, as well as the removal of ash, SO2, and NOx from flue gases. Furthermore, gasification makes it possible to recycle ash into building materials, which will address a major environmental problem: the release of toxic substances into groundwater from hydraulic ash removal systems.
Coal gasification will also solve two other important problems: eliminating the mechanical underburning of coal due to its high ash content (approximately 20% when using Donetsk anthracite), minimizing the consumption of natural gas for start-up operations (currently 180 thousand nm3/one start-up of a 300 MW unit) and completely eliminating its use in coal combustion.
Given the coal shortages caused by military operations in eastern Ukraine, it seems prudent to expand fuel sources by using brown coal, of which Ukraine has significant reserves. At the same time, the problem of drying coal at its mining sites must be addressed, as its moisture content is 40–50%. Furthermore, in most central regions of the Dnieper region, coal has a high sulfur content (4–6%), which will require mandatory desulfurization at thermal power plants when burning it.
To select optimal desulfurization solutions, research and development work is necessary. The most attractive solution appears to be the production of liquid SO2—a valuable product for the chemical industry and agriculture. It would be appropriate to finance this work through fines paid by thermal power plants for pollutant emissions.
Maintaining the generation of electricity at coal-fired thermal power plants for the future is advisable provided that new power units are introduced that provide high performance indicators—both economic (efficiency of at least 60%) and environmental (emissions into the environment not exceeding the maximum permissible concentrations of new European standards).
The volume of electricity generation at such thermal power plants must be determined taking into account many factors, including ensuring a reliable energy supply to consumers, the possibility of backing up other energy sources, and employment in specific regions.
The optimal balance between generation methods should be defined in Ukraine's Energy Development Strategy. It must be emphasized once again that without a significant change in the country's leadership's approach to energy, there is no hope of improving the standard of living for Ukrainian citizens. Hope now lies with the new government and, especially, with citizen engagement. Ukraine's energy sector can and must be independent.
In topic: Konstantin Grigorishin, Distinguished Oligarch of Ukraine and Russia
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