On December 2, the current Ukrainian government turns one year old. During this time, the ministers have accomplished quite a bit. But is this enough to call the government's work a success?
On December 2, the current Ukrainian government, led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, will mark its first anniversary. This is the second Cabinet of Ministers appointed by the new Verkhovna Rada after last year's parliamentary elections, supported by a coalition of five pro-European parties declaring their commitment to the ideals of the Maidan. This government was expected not only to stabilize the situation in the country but also to deliver successful reforms. After all, the pro-Russian Party of Regions and the Communists could no longer impede the work of parliament and the Cabinet, and all the new ministers vied with each other in promising swift changes.
Over the past year, ministers and the prime minister have faced both praise and harsh criticism. This spring, Peter Balazs, head of the European Commission's Ukraine advocacy group, commenting on the Yatsenyuk government's initial steps and legislative initiatives, called the Cabinet "the best Ukraine has ever seen." Meanwhile, MP Serhiy Leshchenko considers the prime minister "a symbol of Ukrainian corruption," adding that he should be "kicked out of the Cabinet." So what can be considered the current Ukrainian ministers' achievements, and what should they not be proud of?
Macroeconomic stabilization
Analysts believe the current government's main achievements include the stabilization of the Ukrainian economy. According to the State Statistics Service, the rate of GDP decline has slowed: in the third quarter of this year, GDP contracted by 7 percent compared to the same period last year. In the second quarter, the decline was 14,6 percent, and in the first, 17,2 percent. And next year, according to the National Bank of Ukraine's forecast, economic growth is expected to reach 2-2,4 percent. This estimate is in line with the expectations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This year, Ukraine reached the bottom of the economic crisis.
The government, together with the National Bank, can also boast of a slowdown in inflation at the end of 2015 (a decrease in the positive core consumer price index to 0,8 percent in October from 3 percent in September), a doubling of gold and foreign exchange reserves (according to the forecast, they will reach just over 13 billion dollars by the end of the year) and a successful restructuring of external debt.
According to Serhiy Fursa, an investment banker at Dragon Capital, Ukraine has reached the bottom of the economic crisis, after which an improvement is expected. This provides the basis for addressing the government's future objectives. "We demand reforms, and any reforms are impossible in an unstable economic situation," the expert explains.
Conflict of interest
The political foundation of the Ukrainian government is no less shaky than its economic foundation. The return of competition to the country's politics after the Maidan has forced the ruling team to reconcile a vast array of interests, which manifests itself in the instability of the government's support in parliament, endless public recriminations, and behind-the-scenes intrigue.
Parliament session in Kyiv
Thus, only 36 percent of the laws submitted by the Cabinet of Ministers to the Verkhovna Rada were successfully passed, says Tymofiy Mylovanov, an economics professor at the University of Pittsburgh and founder of the analytical platform Vox Ukraine. And this is despite the fact that an overwhelming majority of 341 deputies voted for the current prime minister to form a government, and 288 votes approved the cabinet itself.
Oleksiy Haran, a political science professor at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, believes that the very fact that the government team worked successfully under these circumstances is no small achievement. "The coalition didn't fall apart, given the fact that it's a coalition government, and many things have to be agreed upon between partners, seeking support in the chamber, and seeking compromises with the president—that's the most important thing," the political scientist explains.
Anti-Corruption Front
Despite constant criticism, when it comes to the fight against corruption, it is precisely the steps taken in this direction that experts at Vox Ukraine, an analytical platform that analyzes Ukrainian reforms, rate most highly. It should be noted that these are efforts, not actual achievements.
One of the founders of Vox Ukraine, Timofey Mylovanov, attributes this to the adoption of laws that will eventually make corrupt schemes more difficult, helping journalists expose them. These laws include, for example, the law on opening property registers.
The Ukrainian police are the result of one of the reforms carried out
Valery Pekar, a member of the National Reform Council, cites such steps as the introduction of transparent public procurement and significant deregulation. "A huge number of pointless, corrupt, and unnecessary procedures in all spheres of life have been abolished or simplified, and almost all ministries can boast of this," Pekar concludes.
But the most notable step in this direction remains the creation of a new police force. This, according to most experts, is perhaps the only example of systemic reform, which should be followed by other government agencies. Milovanov is confident: "It (this reform – Ed.) allows ordinary people to see that things can be different. This could be the most important reform in the country, because it affects not only the law enforcement system but also people's consciousness."
Too little, too late
But it is the fight against corruption that best illustrates how the current government's achievements remain meager compared to the challenges facing the Ukrainian state. Despite numerous sound laws and some progressive reforms, Ukrainians, according to Mylovanov, lack confidence in the effectiveness of the fight against corruption.
This is also evidenced by the results of sociological surveys: according to a study by the Social Monitoring Center, approximately 72 percent of respondents believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction, 32 percent believe that changes in the country are not happening quickly enough, and 40 percent believe that there are no changes at all.
"There have certainly been successes, because this is probably the best government in Ukraine's history," says Fursa. "But the demands on it are now much higher." The investment banker is confident the government has failed to drive reform. The main criticism leveled at the Cabinet of Ministers is that change in the country is occurring too slowly, and in some places, not at all, agrees political scientist Haran. Despite the fact that many legislative and institutional foundations are currently being laid to bring the country closer to the rule of law, he believes this is still insufficient.
Thus, the government has still failed to improve its own structure. According to Pekar, nothing has changed in the past year in state structures and their extremely ineffective procedures. "The result is a stalling of many important reforms, from budgetary and tax reforms to the civil service, from state asset management reform to healthcare."
Dissatisfaction with the stalled reforms isn't limited to Ukraine. European experts also see clearly that the Ukrainian government's pace of addressing the problems remains extremely slow. Balázs Jarabik, an expert on Eastern Europe at the Carnegie Europe Center, attributes this to the resistance of the old system. "It's clear that Ukrainian politics hasn't changed significantly since the Maidan, as was hoped not only in Ukraine but also in the West."
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