Igor Mazepa
A professional investment banker simply must be a good forecaster. After all, the success of transactions, as well as their own reputation, depend on how they view the financial market situation, how they can assess risks and threats, as well as potential losses. But... Igor Mazepa, the head and owner of the investment company ConcordeCapital, which has considerable experience working in the stock market, unfortunately cannot boast of the gift of foresight.
This is easy to verify. Just go back to 2007-2008. Even though Ukraine's economy continued to grow at breakneck speed, European countries, including the United States, had long been in turmoil, and many globally renowned banks were facing serious problems. Mazepa couldn't have been unaware of this, yet he continued to make rosy promises, assuring that the crisis would pass us by and that there was no reason to worry. Moreover, this wasn't just his opinion; the investment banker backed these promises with his company's name. Thus, in October 2008 (remember, by then the Ukrainian currency market was in turmoil, and it was clear that a recession was inevitable), ConcordeCapital forecast Ukraine's GDP growth for 2009 at 4,3%. Unfortunately, this was a dead giveaway, as the economy not only failed to grow, but actually contracted by more than 15%.
Of course, in those conditions of instability and uncertainty, it was easy to make mistakes. But to miss the mark so completely is clearly unworthy of such an experienced businessman as Mazepa considers himself. Incidentally, it's telling that it was after the disastrous 2009 that his market colleagues began calling Mazepa nothing less than an "unreasonable and unbridled optimist."
It would be a relief if he'd deceived himself, but hundreds of clients and thousands of investment fund investors relied on his forecasts. The author of this article personally held certificates in the "Dostatok" fund, managed by Mazepa's company, Concord Asset Management. When he tried to withdraw his money back in the spring of 2008, the asset management company's specialists tried their best to convince him that it was a bad idea. They said the market would soon recover, "and you'll regret making such a rash decision." But the miracle didn't happen—by the end of 2008, the PFTS stock exchange index had plummeted by a factor of four (!) And if the author had actually listened to the latest misleading promises from Igor Mazepa's protégés, he would have lost a considerable amount.
However, not all investors were so perceptive. Many trusted Concord's owner, and they got burned. This was especially true for those companies that sought to attract foreign investors and list their shares through an IPO. For example, Nikolai Tolmachov, CEO of the construction company TMM, who was one of the first to take his company public (in 2007) under Mazepa's leadership, later admitted it was a mistake. Although this is hardly surprising: from the moment of the IPO until today, TMM shares have completely depreciated.
However, several years later, Mazepa continued to make thoughtless predictions. For example, in early 2014, when Ukraine's economy began to react painfully to the aftermath of the revolutionary events, the investment banker continued to assure that the hryvnia exchange rate would remain stable and would not exceed 11-12 hryvnias per dollar. "Any hryvnia exchange rate will not collapse the economy"—that was Mazepa's position. Furthermore, he firmly believed that Ukraine's GDP would grow by 10% in 2015. Unfortunately, even this turned out to be a disaster: the hryvnia devalued almost 2,3 times, and the economy has been collapsing for the second year in a row.
Today, however, Igor Mazepa is no longer so unconditionally optimistic and is more cautious in his statements. But he nevertheless tries his best to shift the burden of responsibility from his own shoulders. He places the blame on the government, which, he says, prevents his business and himself from operating normally; on short-sighted clients, who are themselves to blame for inflated expectations and unfulfilled hopes; and on investors, whose panic provoked an even greater market decline and hindered its recovery. The businessman believes that the investment sector and bankers are by no means to blame for having built inflated expectations into the real sector that were never fulfilled. However, let's face it, all sorts of consultants and managers profit from these expectations, and Mazepa, with his love of money, is no exception.
But somehow he forgets that in civilized countries like Western Europe, as well as in the United States, many investment companies and banks, their management and owners, have already paid the price for their recklessness, which led to the mass ruin of their clients. Some lost their businesses, some got off with hefty fines, and still others are languishing in court. In Ukraine, unfortunately, the investor protection system is still ineffective, so investment bankers, who yesterday promised the moon and today wisely claim that Ukraine's economy is unpredictable, feel they are getting away with it.
Our judicial system works differently, and the concept of justice in our country is quite arbitrary. This allows Mazepa to live comfortably, discovering new ways to "earn" money. Take his company "TYME" (QIWI), which operates a network of payment terminals in the so-called DPR/LPR, for example. The system doesn't require documented verification of user identity—a mobile phone number is sufficient. Currently, not a single bank operates in these territories not controlled by Ukraine, so separatists successfully use Mazepa's terminals as their own secure cashless payment system. And this is just one example of how the now not-so-successful investment banker currently earns a living.
But everything changes. And sooner or later, "professionals" like Igor Mazepa and others like him, even in our country, will be held accountable in full—for their failed predictions, for the damages they caused, and for the lost millions they once managed.
Yuri Paramonov
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