"KP" in Ukraine summarized the five main results of the local elections.
Did the ruling party win?
Preliminary results indicate that no political force, including pro-government coalition parties, will have an absolute majority in local councils. This means that various ad hoc coalitions will be formed in councils based on the political forces that have gained the most support. In the southeast of the country, this will be based on the Opposition Bloc and new political brands. In the center and west, this will be based on coalition parties.
Vladimir Fesenko, Director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research, believes that the BPP performed quite successfully in these elections.
"The ruling party will be represented in most local councils. It won't have complete control over the regions, but that's a good thing. This reflects the real competitiveness in the country," the expert told KP in Ukraine.
And the wide diversity of political forces will lead to the creation of situational coalitions.
"They will negotiate personnel matters: one party will appoint the city council chairman, while the other will appoint the secretary or head of a committee. Most pro-European parties in the southeast will cooperate. For example, in Dnipropetrovsk, the BPP may exploit the differences between the winners—UKROP and the Opposition Bloc. In some cases, they will support one or the other, which will serve the interests of the central government," the political scientist believes.
When will local deputies have more powers?
First, the Verkhovna Rada must adopt the final version of the decentralization law, which was voted on in the first reading during the tragic events outside parliament on August 31. According to this document, local authorities will only receive real powers after the 2017 local elections.
Ruslan Bortnik, Director of the Ukrainian Institute for Policy Analysis and Management, believes that the large number of parties that have entered local councils will make their governance quite challenging, especially in terms of managing local finances and resources.
"It's also worth remembering that the draft decentralization law already stipulates that the next local elections will take place in 2017. This means that, literally from the very first day, deputies will be focused on competing for ratings rather than developing local communities. Furthermore, there's a major problem with the final adoption of the decentralization law itself—it doesn't have the 300 votes required," the expert told KP in Ukraine.
Were the elections democratic?
According to Central Election Commission data, overall turnout in the local elections was low. Just over 46 percent of voters turned out for the October 25 elections. The highest turnout was in the Ternopil Oblast—over 56 percent—and the lowest in the Donetsk Oblast—just over 31 percent. US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt noted that overall, the current electoral process in Ukraine was organized at a fairly high level.
But there were also some violations; the Committee of Voters of Ukraine recorded more than 1500 “faults.”
"Most of these are procedural and technical violations that are not capable of influencing the election results," said Oleksiy Koshel, head of the KIU, at a press conference.
According to him, such violations include late opening and interruptions of polling stations, the absence of voting booths and vote counting forms at the start of voting, the stuffing of control sheets into the ballot box without seals, and voter bribery.
More serious violations led to the disruption of elections in Mariupol and Krasnoarmiisk. Now, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine will determine the timing of elections in these cities.
How will this affect the peace process in Donbass?
Immediately after the local elections, Igor Plotnitsky, the head of the so-called "LPR," declared that he would not allow Ukraine to hold elections in the territory under his control. He also promised to hold them without Kyiv's participation, but in accordance with OSCE rules. This directly contradicts the Minsk agreements, which require elections to be held in accordance with Ukrainian law and with the admission of all domestic parties and media.
Political expert Taras Chornovil believes there is no direct connection between local elections and the peace process.
"Plotnitsky can say whatever he wants, but the Minsk agreements clearly spell out the conditions for holding elections in the occupied territories of Donbas. These include the withdrawal of armed forces and the restoration of Ukrainian control over the border, the admission of Ukrainian parties and media to the elections, and the holding of elections under the auspices of the OSCE. In other words, such elections could take place in a few years; for us now, the most important thing is a ceasefire and an end to the bloodshed," the expert believes.
Will there be new parliamentary elections?
Although there is no direct link between local elections and the Verkhovna Rada, they could still become a catalyst for centrifugal processes within the parliamentary coalition. Strengthening one or another coalition member in local government would give them the opportunity to dictate their terms to their majority colleagues. And in the most extreme scenario, they could even demand early parliamentary elections.
"If Batkivshchyna and Samopomich, which performed well in the local elections, reach an agreement, they could well demand a change of government from the coalition, taking their interests into account. If the major factions have the common sense to find a compromise, this threat will be removed. However, if personal ambitions and animosity prevail, we will have new parliamentary elections in the spring," political scientist Vitaliy Bala predicted for "KP in Ukraine."
Victor Timofeev, KP in Ukraine
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