Having temporarily freed itself from the headache of constitutional amendments, parliament immediately found another one. Passions are once again flaring in the Verkhovna Rada over government reform, including a complete change. And as is typical in Ukrainian politics, all this is accompanied by new scandals and behind-the-scenes deals.
Will Yatsenyuk and Avakov leave?
Until recently, Arseniy Yatsenyuk's position seemed secure. President Petro Poroshenko made it clear that he was not currently interested in replacing the head of government. The two largest factions in the coalition—the Petro Poroshenko Bloc and the People's Front—were of the same mindset.
But on Friday, the Samopomich party unexpectedly announced it was recalling Agrarian Policy Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko from the government. Allegedly, the prime minister was preventing their minister from doing his job properly, and under this pretext, they called on the parliamentary coalition to dismiss the old government and form a new one.
Before this, some experts saw the preconditions for Yatsenyuk's resignation in his absence from the International Economic Forum in Davos. Allegedly, everyone was there—from the president to the finance minister—but Arseniy Petrovich was absent. This led to the conclusion that the Cabinet reshuffle could very well lead to the full resignation of the government, including the prime minister.
At the same time, the question of replacing Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, allegedly demanded by the BPP, has again arisen within the parliamentary coalition. The head of the People's Front faction, Maksym Burbak (Read more about it in the article Maksym Burbak: How Chernivtsi residents sat on Donetsk's "golden toilet") called this information a provocation and assured that the government changes would not affect ministers who are implementing successful reforms in Ukraine. However, he was unlikely to convince the Interior Minister's critics, who are quite numerous in parliament.
New faces in the Cabinet of Ministers
The BPP has named several candidates for the positions of First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Infrastructure, and Minister of Health. Notably, some of them were previously part of the current Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko's team.
Ihor Kononenko, deputy chairman of the BPP Solidarity faction, announced that his political force is considering current Deputy Chief of Staff Vitaliy Kovalchuk for the position of First Deputy Prime Minister. Kovalchuk was previously considered one of Klitschko's closest allies. After Klitschko's victory in the Kyiv mayoral election, Kovalchuk became the head of the UDAR faction in parliament. He then joined Petro Poroshenko's team and headed Poroshenko's campaign headquarters. However, according to some reports, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk is categorically opposed to appointing Kovalchuk, the president's man, as his first deputy in the government.
The BPP is considering Pavlo Ryabikin, who previously served as Kyiv's deputy mayor, as a candidate for the post of Minister of Infrastructure. However, Vitali Klitschko dismissed him from that post in September. Incidentally, Pavlo Ryabikin is also a classmate of current Odesa Governor Mikheil Saakashvili.
The BPP also has its own candidate for the post of Minister of Health to replace Alexander Kvitashivli, who submitted a letter of resignation back in July 2015.
“We discussed the candidacy of the Director of the Heart Institute, Boris Todurov,” said Igor Kononenko.
However, another member of the BPP faction, Sergei Leshchenko, denied that these names were discussed by the faction.
"I don't know which faction Mr. Kononenko was in when he discussed the names of Kovalchuk, Ryabikin, and Todurov for government positions. As a faction member, I can assure you that these candidates were not discussed. And no decisions were made. A small meeting or a meeting at the 5th Element sports club is not a faction meeting," the deputy wrote on Facebook.
The BPP apparently isn't seeking the vacant post of Ecology Minister and is prepared to offer it to other coalition factions. The position has been vacant since the Verkhovna Rada dismissed Ecology Minister Ihor Shevchenko in July 2015, who was appointed under the Batkivshchyna quota. The position of head of the Ministry of Information Policy also remains vacant, but there isn't a long waiting list for it yet.
Vadim KARASEV, political scientist:
The Cabinet reorganization is directly linked to the vote on decentralization. If the president wants to secure 300 votes for this, he won't be able to secure them without the People's Front. This means there won't be a complete government change—Yatsenyuk and Avakov will remain in their posts until at least spring. The key Cabinet configuration—the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the Ministry of Economy—will also remain intact. However, this doesn't rule out the emergence of new faces in the Cabinet. Kovalchuk could very well become First Deputy Prime Minister. He was previously on Klitschko's team, but is now within the president's orbit. The positions of Minister of Health and Minister of Infrastructure could also be filled by new people.
Vladimir FESENKO, political scientist:
There won't be a comprehensive change in the government's composition. And the fact that Yatsenyuk wasn't present at Davos reflects the rule that the president and prime minister don't travel together on foreign trips. Although Yaresko's several political statements outside her purview (regarding the return of Crimea) could have been perceived as her showing off to Western partners. But her candidacy will be difficult to secure through parliament.
As for Avakov, after his incident with Saakashvili, he was blacklisted by the president. Poroshenko never forgave him for this insubordination. Therefore, it can be assumed that Avakov, as a politician and official, has already disappeared from Poroshenko's radar. The only question is when he will be removed.
Kovalchuk may indeed be appointed to the post of First Deputy Prime Minister; various sources are saying so. He's a good organizer. As for Ryabikin and Todorov, that's still just a matter of discussion.
Meanwhile
Agrarian Policy Minister Alexei Pavlenko expressed outrage that Samopomich was recalling him from his post as head of the department and stated that he had no obligations to this political force.
"I was shocked by the statement from the Samopomich party's political council, as the party has always held my team's work in high regard. I was not consulted on this matter. I am not a member of any party and do not belong to any party bodies. I have no behind-the-scenes commitments. I have only one policy—agrarian policy," the Minister of Agriculture wrote on Facebook, making it clear he has no intention of leaving his post or participating in the games surrounding the Cabinet reorganization.
Victor Timofeev, KP in Ukraine
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