Former President Petro Poroshenko hasn't given up hope of regaining control of the country. Photo: Izym Kaumbayev, Strana.
In the public space, Volodymyr Zelensky and the “servants of the people” on the one hand and Petro Poroshenko on the other hand, they constantly and harshly engage in a heated exchange.
In recent days, this has been happening, for example, around the pogrom at the Presidential Office, for which Zelenskyy has directly accused Poroshenko of orchestrating it. The former president himself has also criticized Bankova on all fronts.
One gets the impression of a struggle between two irreconcilable political opponents.
But, in reality, Poroshenko is simultaneously trying to launch processes that could lead to the creation of an alliance between European Solidarity and the "Servants of the People," in which he himself is counting on the post of prime minister.
Details in the article "Countries".
Re-election for Poroshenko
After the local elections, party ratings, although they fluctuated significantly, remained fundamentally unchanged.
According to surveys by various sociological services, the top three leaders are the presidential Servant of the People (SN), former President Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity (ES), and the Opposition Platform – For Life (OPFL).
Poroshenko's party finds itself in an interesting situation.
As “Country” wrote, Zelensky Over the past couple of months, he has been posing as a "patriot" and a fighter against "Russian aggression," thereby entering the electoral field where the former president has long been established.
However, sociological research shows that Poroshenko's party hasn't suffered a significant decline in its ratings. Support for European Solidarity fluctuates between 14% and 18% among respondents who have made their choice.
On the other hand, Poroshenko's personal disapproval rating remains high. According to the latest data from "Rating," 25% trust the former president, while 73% distrust him.
With such a negative rating, Poroshenko has virtually no chance of becoming president even if he makes it to the second round with Zelensky.
At the same time, another peak is more realistic for the ex-president: the post of prime minister.
He can achieve this if early elections to the Rada are called.
If by that time the balance of power in the party rankings has not changed (when three parties – SN, OPZZh, and ES – are in a tight group with a significant lead over their competitors) and Poroshenko’s party takes first place in the elections (which, based on current sociology, is not an easy task, but not unrealistic either), then the balance of power in the new parliament will be quite favorable for the leader of European Solidarity.
In this case, a coalition could theoretically be formed in only three ways: with the participation of the Opposition Platform – For Life and the EU (which is unrealistic), with the participation of the Opposition Platform – For Life and Servant of the People (which the Americans will prevent), and with Servant of the People and Poroshenko's party. The last option seems the most likely given this balance of power.
At the same time, naturally, Poroshenko will demand the post of prime minister for himself.
And having received this position, he can gradually nullify Zelensky's influence until Ukraine transitions to a parliamentary form of government.
Naturally, the actual outcome of the elections could be different. For example, European Solidarity could receive less than the polls currently estimate, thanks to the fact that parties enter the Rada. Groisman or Klitschko, with whom (as well as with Batkivshchyna) the Servants of the People will try to create a coalition without Poroshenko.
But in any case, the ex-president's party will gain significantly more seats in the Rada than it currently holds. Therefore, the game is worth the candle.
According to Strana, Petro Poroshenko is actively lobbying for early parliamentary elections through all available channels in the United States. He presents this as an opportunity to form a "Euro-Atlantic" coalition. Poroshenko's lobbyists portray the current "mono-majority" of Servant of the People as contradictory in its pro-Western orientation, with a significant number of people who are not pro-American.
The SN-EU coalition will, as Poroshenko promises, pursue a more consistent Euro-Atlantic course after the elections.
Last week, after Biden called Putin a "killer," Poroshenko released a video in which he heaped praise on the US president, chiding Zelensky for his indecisive stance, but said he was actively working on arranging a call between Biden and Zelensky.
"We're not trying for Zelenskyy's sake, of course, but for the state, because Ukraine's national interests require dialogue with the United States at the highest level. Our security depends on it, our victory in the war with Russia depends on it. Our prospects for membership in the European Union and NATO depend on it. Ukraine's future depends on it," Petro Poroshenko declared pompously.
People's Deputy from Poroshenko's party Alexey Goncharenko They deny the possibility of an alliance with Zelensky, either in this or the next Rada.
"We are an opposition force that hasn't supported a single personnel appointment by this government and hasn't voted for any budget proposals. The 'servants' won't form any coalition with us. And their party won't even be in the next parliament," Goncharenko told Strana.
At the same time, the head of the party headquarters Alexander Turchinov was less categorical in a recent interview with the BBC.
"When they (the Servants of the People – Ed.) suddenly see the light and ask for help to stop this chaos, then, of course, the specialists in European Solidarity will be happy to help stabilize the situation," Turchynov said.
He believes that such an option is entirely possible if early elections are held, after which Poroshenko could become prime minister.
"I hope that the current government has enough, if not intelligence, then at least the instinct for self-preservation, to call early elections and shoulder the burden they can't bear. Poroshenko is sufficiently prepared for the post of prime minister," Turchynov said.
Arguments against
What is playing against Poroshenko here?
First, there's a strong mistrust of Poroshenko on Washington's part. On the issues where the Americans currently have problems with Zelenskyy (anti-corruption vertical, judicial reform), there were at least as many problems under Poroshenko. And in the fight against the "Russian threat," Zelenskyy is now proving himself to be even more of a hawk than Poroshenko.
Moreover, Biden's team is unlikely to have forgotten that it was Yuriy Lutsenko (with Poroshenko's knowledge) who promised to pass on compromising information on the family of the current US president to Giuliani's people.
Secondly, it is not only Poroshenko who is conducting behind-the-scenes negotiations with the winning team in the US.
Former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who now relies on the support of Ukraine's richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, has his own history with her. Yatsenyuk has no chance of becoming president or leading a party. He's at electoral rock bottom. But he hopes to win again on a shoestring, as he did in 2012, when, as the leader of the unpopular Front for Change, he succeeded the imprisoned Yulia Tymoshenko as head of the country's main opposition force, Batkivshchyna.
Moreover, Yatsenyuk has maintained close contact with the current US Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland.
"Western diplomats, including American ones, have a generally positive opinion of Yatsenyuk, and they haven't lost hope for his return to big-time politics," confirms political scientist Anatoly Oktysyuk, citing his sources.
At the same time, as Strana previously reported, Yatsenyuk is playing a complex game of his own. On the one hand, he's testing the waters for a renewed alliance with Poroshenko (which would then give the latter's lobbying efforts in Washington an additional boost). On the other hand, he's working with Akhmetov to promote former Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman's political project. On the third hand, through Akhmetov himself, he's trying to somehow integrate into the current system of power.
"The Americans, apparently, are still deciding who will work with Ukraine from there, and who will work with them from Ukraine. Why only Poroshenko? Biden could bet on Yatsenyuk or Zelensky," political scientist Vadym Karasev speculates.
Third, Zelenskyy and Servant of the People absolutely do not need early elections now, given the situation described above. The presidential office does not want to choose between a coalition with the Opposition Platform – For Life party and the EU, which would mean getting a "foreign" prime minister and effectively losing power.
And for now, the mood in Servant of the People is clearly against early elections.
"There are no preconditions for a snap election campaign. Judge for yourself: the mono-majority is in place de jure and de facto. The government is functioning, and we're not forcing anyone to resign yet. The opposition, whose ratings are rising, is pushing the country toward new elections. But no one can force the president to dissolve parliament," MP Oleksandr Kachura told Strana.
Experts also believe that re-elections to the Rada are not yet in sight.
"The only logical option is to absolve oneself of responsibility for what's happening in the country: let's elect a new parliament and agree on a new government and a plan of action. But no one wants to give up power. Zelenskyy still has ample room to maneuver in this Rada. He has a mono-majority, and a coalition with Tymoshenko (the leader of the Batkivshchyna faction, Yulia Tymoshenko – Ed.) and Holos (Voice) can be discussed, just in case. The tradeoff is an uncertain future," comments political scientist Vadym Karasev.
"Everyone will have a larger faction in the new Rada—the Opposition Platform—For Life, Tymoshenko, and Poroshenko. Therefore, they are more or less interested in early elections. This could also be of interest to those regional elites who are building their own political forces with a national focus. The oligarchs don't know what a re-elected parliament and a new government will bring. It could be worse than the current one in terms of meeting their 'wants,'" says political scientist Ruslan Bortnik.
A political source notes that there are only two factors that could force Zelensky to call early elections.
First, there's a severe political crisis, including a major faction split and street protests. After that, Zelenskyy, to let off steam, could dissolve the Rada.
Secondly, there's pressure from the US, which could make elections a strict condition for continued support. But the Americans still need to be convinced of this latter point. So far, there are no signs from Washington that they would be willing to reset the Ukrainian parliament early. On the contrary, the Americans are reluctant to support any drastic political movements in Ukraine, fearing destabilization. And those lobbying for the Rada's dissolution will have to work very hard to persuade the US to change its position.
In topic: Bound by the Same Chain: Why Poroshenko Can't Unstick Himself from Medvedchuk
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