Yulia Tymoshenko
Yulia Tymoshenko remains the most power-hungry Ukrainian politician. She has two prime ministerial posts under her belt, and this fall, she is launching a campaign for a third. Will she be successful?
The actions of the Batkivshchyna leader easily convey the meaning of the concept of "dialectics." One of the smallest factions in the Verkhovna Rada has only 19 members, but Yulia Volodymyrivna acts as if, as before, she still has over a hundred parliamentary fighters under her wing. Tymoshenko's skill at "re-educating oligarchs" has not disappeared, but political circumstances force her to be more flexible in pursuing her power ambitions. Her presence in the parliamentary coalition is practically meaningless, but at least no one can call her a dissenter. The public remembers well the power struggles between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko during the latter's presidency, so Lady Yu will cling to the coalition to the bitter end.
The Batkivshchyna faction's membership in the European Ukraine party doesn't stop Tymoshenko from fiercely criticizing the government's performance and demanding a drastic reduction in utility rates. The Batkivshchyna leader juggles figures with great skill and is willing to exploit virtually any information platform to achieve her goals. Yulia Volodymyrivna has been performing this "rhapsody" for several months now. While her calculations are sound, the former prime minister stubbornly refuses to answer a simple question: why, as head of government, didn't she take the necessary steps to reform the gas market, instead opting to enter into an enslaving 10-year gas contract with Gazprom? Could it be that the "gas princess," as Yulia Tymoshenko has been called since the mid-90s, when she first appeared in public politics, didn't consider the energy sector's development prospects? Unlikely.
Engrossed in her attack on Yatsenyuk's cabinet and the prime minister himself, who left Batkivshchyna and founded his own "People's Front" with longtime Tymoshenko allies, Yulia Volodymyrivna prefers not to react to "trifles." The issue here isn't the electronic petition regarding her appointment as ambassador to Honduras. But the fact that she used a stolen car from Viktor Yanukovych's collection, worth $800, given the lengthy period of seeking common ground between the most influential politicians at the time, seems more interesting. Lady Yu underestimates the "moth effect," which can quickly and devastatingly affect even a popular politician.
And there are nuances here. The recent removal of Savik Shuster's show from the 1+1 network could deal a serious blow to Yulia Volodymyrivna's ratings—and today, she's close to Petro Poroshenko in popularity. She might have to go back to Inter, which is controlled by the Opposition Bloc bigwigs. Her electorate is primarily concentrated in small towns and villages in central and western Ukraine, and constant contact with them is essential. Local elections aren't the time for Lady Yu to tour the country; it's more advantageous for her to use electronic communication channels.
Tymoshenko's plan is clear: to use Batkivshchyna's results in the local elections to create the conditions for a change in the government and her own return to the prime minister's office. She hopes to signal a change in the political climate as early as early November and make it clear that only the "core" party can pull Ukraine out of its state of shock. Afterward, she hopes to accumulate 226 votes as a situational mosaic of votes from various factions, including pro-government ones. Yulia Volodymyrivna hopes to ride the wave of popular anger she predicts and storm into the corridors of power.
The plan doesn't seem entirely unrealistic, but it has a serious flaw: there are many people in Ukrainian politics who remember the peculiarities of Tymoshenko's governance. One of them is Poroshenko, who is supported by the largest parliamentary faction. Petro Poroshenko also remembers well the autumn of 2005, which ended with a "zero option" for him and Tymoshenko. However, this doesn't stop the Batkivshchyna leader, and she will try again and again to storm the heights of government. Her instinct for power is stronger than her instinct for self-preservation.
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