How the president's team is working to create a future majority, and how Russia, Germany, and the United States could influence it and the candidacy of the future prime minister.
There are still three weeks left until the parliamentary elections, but the presidential team is already hard at work building a future coalition. The maximum plan is a majority and a technical prime minister. The minimum plan could see the allies turn out to be not Yatsenyuk's People's Front, but Serhiy Tihipko's party and the Opposition Bloc. At least, that's what the current prime minister's allies believe.
They also note that the United States or the German-Russian tandem could play a significant role in shaping the future Cabinet, depending on which side President Petro Poroshenko chooses.
The president's room for maneuver will directly depend on the election results and the strength of pro-Russian forces.
The beginnings of the majority
Last week, the presidential party headquarters received the results of a closed opinion poll commissioned by two prominent Kyiv campaigns. It showed that 45% of those who voted were prepared to vote for the BPP.
A member of the central headquarters of the presidential party, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, told INSIDER on condition of anonymity that the president has already determined an acceptable election result. The BPP expects to elect 120 people to parliament through the party list and 100 through single-member constituencies.
"The majority is planned to be created by independent candidates who will be invited to join the BPP faction," an INSIDER source shared with us about the president's team's plans.
Over the past two weeks, numerous current deputies and candidates – front-runners in the single-member constituencies – have visited the president and his chief of staff, Boris Lozhkin.
Furthermore, two people from the BPP central headquarters told INSIDER that BPP candidates running both on the party list and in the single-member constituency are now submitting applications to join the presidential party faction after the presidential election. Many candidates are open about having already done so.
So, the fact that they have already written applications to join the future faction was confirmed to INSIDER by MPs David Zhvania and Andrey Pavelko, both position themselves as members of the president's team.
"I wrote a statement a long time ago and gave it to Kovalchuk (Vitaliy Kovalchuk, a member of parliament from UDAR, who heads the BPP campaign headquarters – INSIDER)," says another candidate running on Poroshenko's party list.
The idea of party candidates submitting an application in advance to join a future faction is nothing new. Andriy Klyuyev, then head of the Party of Regions' campaign headquarters, did the same during the 2012 parliamentary elections.
After the elections, he held "conversations" with independent deputies and urged them to join the Party of Regions faction as well. At that time, according to journalists, he was assisted in this by the same David Zhvania.
In addition to BPP candidates, independent candidates are also being invited to the Presidential Administration for interviews. "The president called me and invited me to a meeting, but I ducked out and didn't go," says one independent MP currently running in the elections as an independent.
Meanwhile, an associate of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Governor Ihor Kolomoisky told INSIDER in an informal conversation that he had also been invited to a meeting with Poroshenko. "We talked, and to his credit, he didn't pressure me, he simply asked what I expected from my run for the Rada. I didn't submit an application to join the faction," Kolomoisky's associate said.
Over the past week, Poroshenko met not only with individual candidates but also with parliamentary groups, specifically with the "Sovereign European Ukraine" group led by Ihor Yeremeyev and Yaroslav Moskalenko. The deputies report that in addition to current issues, such as the discussion of draft anti-corruption laws, the president also discussed the election campaign with them.
"We complained to him that in practically every district where members of our group are running, his team is using administrative resources to favor BPP candidates. He said, 'We're friends, after all,' and promised to look into it. But I got the impression he only befriends us when it suits him," says one of Yeremeyev's allies.
According to him, Poroshenko did not elaborate on the details of his cooperation with Yeremeyev's group in the new parliament, but he did hint that it was time to normalize relations with Russia.
"He said that US and European aid wasn't enough, that we needed to complete gas negotiations with Russia, otherwise we'd face a default this winter," says Yeremeyev's associate.
Technical Premier and Friendship with Russia
The president's desire to be friends with Russia effectively eliminates Arseniy Yatsenyuk's chances of remaining prime minister.
"Yes, of course, the United States will show that they'll provide funds for this prime minister, but Russia and Merkel will make their own proposal on gas. And we know Russia will be against us," say those close to Yatsenyuk.
This opinion is confirmed by a non-partisan MP. "For the first time, we're in a situation where our prime minister and cabinet will be determined by other countries. On one side, the United States; on the other, Germany and Russia. Some promise us money, others promise us gas and money. Meanwhile, Germany insists that we pay off our gas debt to Russia now, and then the EU will refinance us," the MP said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"Peter hopes that, thanks to his diplomatic talents, he will be able to achieve an acceptable result, but it is unlikely," the deputy notes.
The president's inner circle considers the ideal option to be the current deputy prime minister, former Vinnytsia mayor Volodymyr Groysman, as prime minister.
"We need a technical government that will stop engaging in populism. Otherwise, Bolívar won't survive," says independent David Zhvania.
When asked whether the IMF would provide funds for such a technical prime minister, Zhvania replied that they would, if they followed the "European integration instructions."
Yatsenyuk's entourage is clearly already preparing to challenge Groysman's candidacy. Public opinion, which is not yet receptive to the Vinnytsia mayor as head of the Cabinet, will be their trump card.
Yesterday, a link to a study by the Razumkov Center (whose public council includes Yatsenyuk's close associate Mykola Martynenko) appeared on social media. According to this study, 37,6% of respondents see Yatsenyuk as prime minister, while only 2,1% see Groysman as prime minister.
But Groysman is not the only possible competitor to the current prime minister.
A People's Front MP told INSIDER in an informal conversation that Poroshenko is currently consulting on a potential alliance with Serhiy Tihipko in the new parliament. Under such a scenario, the prime minister's seat could allegedly go to either Tihipko or his number two candidate, Valeriy Khoroshkovsky.
"I can tell you that Sergei Leonidovych is currently in deep negotiations with the president," says another MP who is well acquainted with the leader of "Strong Ukraine."
Tigipko's press service did not respond to questions about the negotiations.
According to deputies, Tyhypko as prime minister is more advantageous to Russia, which does not accept Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, on whom the United States is placing its bets.
When asked why the current prime minister doesn't criticize the president, his allies respond that doing so would completely destroy the bridge in negotiations with the president. Furthermore, there's another factor: the West is beginning to question why the supposedly united democratic team is willing to kill each other.
Maxim Kamenev, Tetyana Nikolaenko, Insider
Subscribe to our channels in Telegram, Facebook, Twitter, VC — Only new faces from the section CRYPT!