The political prospects of the head of the Odesa Regional State Administration largely depend on how soon Ukraine will hold snap parliamentary elections.
Mikhail Saakashvili
The latest scandal involving Mikheil Saakashvili—a spat with the Donetsk governor—erupted more than two weeks ago, and the outspoken leader of the Odesa region is in no rush to launch a new attack on his corrupt enemies. The general news coming from the former Georgian president's camp is also rather dull. Apparently, Saakashvili is taking a break while parliament and the government engage in new coalition negotiations to develop a plan for further conquest of the Ukrainian political summit. However, the success of his project will ultimately depend on the collapse of the current parliamentary majority. After all, if Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the president manage to maintain the coalition in its current format, the Odesa governor will be in for a tough time.
Mikheil Saakashvili's sudden retreat into the shadows is entirely justified now, as the government reform process remains the main topic for the political elites. The head of the Odesa Regional State Administration could, of course, continue his media attacks on the oligarchs, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and his entourage, but if the coalition ends with the incumbent prime minister winning, and the head of state reaffirms his support for him, Saakashvili's team will at the very least gain nothing, and may even lose. This is likely why the ever-active former president of Georgia has decided to lay low.
However, this silence is unlikely to last long. Firstly, Saakashvili's project requires constant reinforcement, otherwise his brainchild—an anti-corruption crusade—could be overrun by competitors. Secondly, regardless of the outcome of the parliamentary-government negotiations, it's clear that parties like Batkivshchyna and Samopomich will continue to push the issue of dissolving parliament and calling for early elections. Consequently, the Odesa governor's team needs to somehow keep their potential voters on their toes. Simply put, they need scandals. Therefore, depending on the outcome of the coalition, new or existing ministers should prepare for attacks from Mikheil Saakashvili.
Maintaining his anti-corruption campaign is crucial for the head of the Odesa Regional State Administration, also because prolonged silence in his camp could be seen as evidence of his project's lack of independence. Saakashvili, it would seem, will criticize Yatsenyuk and Co. only when he receives a corresponding signal from the corridors of power. It appears that when the presidential team begins negotiations with the People's Front leadership, Saakashvili is given the all-clear signal. Therefore, to preserve his newly established reputation as the leading anti-corruption fighter, the Odesa governor will likely hold his next forum in one of Ukraine's regional centers in the near future and compile a new ranking of bribe-takers.
Potential voters for Saakashvili's party won't be satisfied for long with the names already sacrificed in the fight against corruption. New "victims" are needed, but choosing them isn't easy, since even Saakashvili has his limits.
But one way or another, the success of Saakashvili's further promotion will depend on how he handles the main challenges facing his team. First, there's the influx of fringe figures eager to leverage the name of a well-known politician into anti-corruption forums, tarnishing his sterling image as a new generation politician by participating in events named after him. Second, the public, including potential voters, won't be able to remain content for long with the names already sacrificed in the fight against corruption. This is especially true given that, for example, Nikolai Martynenko, whom Saakashvili accused of all mortal sins, has already resigned his parliamentary mandate, and the mention of Rinat Akhmetov has long ceased to evoke a strong public reaction. New victims are needed, but choosing them isn't easy, since even the "independent anti-corruption fighter" Saakashvili has his limits. This, however, is easy to discern from the list of key corrupt officials in Ukraine he's already announced. And, most interestingly, Saakashvili will have to choose his new "victims" from among top politicians. A crackdown on some Odesa regional government official is unlikely to attract widespread public interest.
Another challenge facing the head of the Odesa Regional State Administration today is that Saakashvili's initiative won't last long in its current format. The anti-corruption forum is an information campaign, but it's not forums that participate in elections, but parties. Therefore, the former Georgian president's team will have to figure out how to transform the anti-corruption initiative into a real political force. And the sooner the corresponding decisions are made, the better for Saakashvili himself. After all, the last forum, held in Kharkiv, demonstrated that this campaign is already experiencing a crisis of form. Gennady Kernes is certainly disliked by many, but criticism of him could have earned serious electoral points two or three years ago, but not now. And if Saakashvili were to take his forum to, say, Lviv, who would he criticize there? Certainly not Andriy Sadovyi.
Thus, the political future of the Odesa governor now depends on three factors: the timing of the parliamentary coalition's collapse, the date of possible snap elections, and the successful design of his party plan. Deputy Governor Oleksandr Borovik recently announced that work on the last point is already underway. Saakashvili himself will likely soon announce the formation of such a party. It's quite possible that such a move will be a response to Arseniy Yatsenyuk remaining prime minister, if the incumbent's team manages to reach an agreement with Bankova.
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