On Thursday, members of parliament successfully held two constitutional votes. The first was to send draft amendments to the Basic Law regarding the judiciary to the Constitutional Court. The second was to amend the Rules of Procedure of the Verkhovna Rada, clarifying how amendments to the Basic Law should be adopted. The document, which was approved by 229 members of parliament, states that the amendments can be voted on (with 300 votes) not at the next regular session, but at any regular session.
The Radical Party called this vote a “constitutional coup,” Self-Reliance called it a banal “fraud,” and the BPP called it almost a triumph of common sense.
"We cannot restrict deputies from considering such an important issue as the Constitution," retorted Igor Kononenko, deputy head of the BPP faction.
While the deputies debated and attempted to register a draft resolution canceling the vote with the Rada Office (Svoboda members claim all offices were closed from 12:00 PM to 3:00 PM), President Petro Poroshenko signed the adopted amendments to the Verkhovna Rada Rules of Procedure. And that's a record! Never before has Petro Poroshenko made a decision so quickly.
But the real political passions were raging behind the scenes in the Verkhovna Rada. Members of parliament, on condition of anonymity, eagerly shared breaking information and behind-the-scenes deals. Time will tell how much of this was "insider information" and how much was simply a rumor.
In the meantime, "KP" in Ukraine introduces readers to what the deputies revealed yesterday.
Secret 1: Poroshenko's bloc is losing fighters
"There's a real crisis in the pro-presidential faction right now. Around 70 deputies have submitted statements of resignation from the Petro Poroshenko Bloc. But the papers (statements) have been shelved. To keep the team together, Petro Poroshenko is threatening the 'disobedient' with early parliamentary elections," one non-coalition MP told KP in Ukraine. His words were confirmed by a second source. He added, however, that some of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc deputies intend to formalize their political affiliation with new party projects.
"In a month or two, Mikheil Saakashvili will present his political force. And he'll lead it into the elections. He won't run himself, as the law prohibits it (candidates must have resided in Ukraine for at least five years). And in March, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko (former head of the Security Service of Ukraine) plans to present his party. Incidentally, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk will be on his team," the parliamentarian noted.
Secret 2: Sadovy will support Saakashvili
"Only at first glance does it seem that Samopomich, by recalling its minister, Oleksiy Pavlenko, and not offering an alternative, is taking a 'Baba Yaga is against it' stance. No. These guys are pursuing a policy with an eye to the future—bringing forward early elections. They want to join the future government. Sadovyi (leader of the Samopomich party, mayor of Lviv) and his team will support Saakashvili for the post of prime minister after the elections. During the Christmas holidays, Saakashvili and Sadovyi had several meetings on the topic," one of the BPP representatives commented on Samopomich's personnel decisions.
Secret 3: The referendum came from Davos
"The idea of holding a referendum on the adoption of the Constitution arose spontaneously. In Davos, Petro Poroshenko met with George Soros and discussed with him a proposed amendment to the Constitution that would temporarily, for two years, allow the president to become the head of the executive branch—to be both president and head of the Cabinet of Ministers. As soon as we learned of this, we launched a campaign stating that the people would decide the future Constitution in a referendum. This will make it more difficult for Poroshenko to push through SUCH changes," an influential Frontovik confided to us.
Secret 4: Elections will be scheduled for autumn
"I'd rate the chances of holding early parliamentary elections this fall at 80-20. No one's listening or hearing each other. Yatsenyuk and his 'Front' have become a suitcase without a handle: it's impossible to live with him, and impossible without him, only elections," a young associate of the president complained to a journalist from "KP in Ukraine."
Secret 5: Yatsenyuk will report and stay
"This Yatsenyuk report is a bluff. Yes, he'll come to the Rada on February 16, report... He'll cross the line (from the Verkhovna Rada to the Cabinet of Ministers) and continue working. A report doesn't automatically entail his resignation. There must be a corresponding presidential initiative or a draft resolution signed by at least 150 deputies. Poroshenko won't initiate the prime minister's resignation, as that would lead to early elections, and he doesn't want them, despite talking about them. And collecting signatures wasn't even discussed. All this talk of the prime minister's imminent resignation is a continuation of the squabble between Petya and Senya," said an independent parliamentarian, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"The most desirable option is a government reform."
Vladimir Fesenko, Director of the Penta Center for Political Analysis:
"As far as I know, four scenarios are being considered for resolving the escalating political crisis. The first and least likely is to hold early parliamentary elections. They are practically unprofitable for anyone."
The second, likely but highly questionable, option is to amend the Constitution to strengthen the president's powers, making him also head of government. I doubt there would be 300 votes for that.
The third most anticipated option is Yatsenyuk's resignation and a new prime minister. But there's a problem: who will replace Arseniy Petrovich? So far, none of the candidates being discussed—Volodymyr Groysman, Oleksandr Turchynov, Natalia Yaresko, and Borys Lozhkin—has found support in the coalition. The fourth, and most desired option at Bankova, is to persuade Arseniy Yatsenyuk to reform the government, specifically by appointing a presidential insider, say, Vitaliy Kovalchuk, as First Deputy Prime Minister. Currently, if Yatsenyuk is absent, government meetings are chaired by Vyacheslav Kyrylenko, Yatsenyuk's man. The Presidential Administration, however, wants its own person to replace Arseniy Petrovich in such cases, thus creating a deterrent.
"It all depends on the president"
Konstantin Bondarenko, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of Ukrainian Politics:
Preparations for early parliamentary elections have already begun. But politicians are not actively involved. The situation is very precarious. If elections are held, they won't be discussed in any meaningful way until May or June. The political crisis will remain in limbo. A scenario involving strengthening presidential powers is being discussed. But this won't happen through constitutional amendments, as there aren't 300 votes for that. It can only be implemented in one way: a strong-willed decision by Petro Poroshenko to assume the powers of both guarantor of the Constitution and prime minister for the period until a new constitution is adopted. There is a desire to emulate Charles de Gaulle's example.
Elena Galadzhiy, KP in Ukraine
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