Victor Medvedchuk
Following the National Security and Defense Council's decision to impose sanctions against Medvedchuk, no significant government attacks on pro-Kremlin forces were observed, writes DS.
Recent sociological data suggests that the rating is stabilizing. Vladimir Zelensky. And the reason for this phenomenon is quite clear. However, at Bankova, it seems, they decided to sacrifice the success they had achieved in order to return to their favorite pastime—the war with Petro Poroshenko.
Zelensky isn't a lame duck yet.
For a long time, sociologists recorded negative trends for the government month after month. However, in March, the growing negativity stopped, and even signs of positive change appeared.
A revealing picture emerges when comparing, for example, the two waves of the sociological study "Socio-Political Attitudes of Ukrainians," conducted by the Ukrainian Institute of the Future with the assistance of the New Image Marketing Group. The first wave was conducted from January 27 to February 5; the second, from March 3 to 13.
Specifically, the share of those who consider the developments in Ukraine to be wrong has decreased from 74% to 69%. Meanwhile, the share of those who assess the developments positively has increased from 14% to 16%. The balance of assessments has improved from -60% to -53%. Of course, this isn't a radical turnaround. But at least the authorities have a chance to increase optimism in society.
We see a similar situation with the level of trust in the government. The percentage of respondents who distrust President Zelenskyy has decreased from 68% to 62%. Meanwhile, the percentage of those who trust him has increased from 29% to 34%. The balance of assessments has improved from -39% to -28%. This is, in fact, a significant change. If Zelenskyy were to continue this trend, he would achieve a positive trust-distrust balance within three months. But that's just an "if."
Zelenskyy's team is following suit. The share of respondents who said they lack confidence in the Presidential Office fell from 76% to 70%. Meanwhile, the share of those who trust the Office of the President increased from 21% to 24%. The balance of assessments improved from -55% to -46%.
Similarly, the percentage of respondents who distrust the Servant of the People party decreased from 79% to 74%. The percentage of those who do trust it increased from 17% to 20%. The balance of assessments improved from -62% to -54%.
This shift in sentiment has also been reflected in electoral ratings. In short, it's too early to write Zelenskyy off. The share of respondents willing to vote for him has risen from 25% to 29% (among those who intend to vote and have already made their choice). Along with Zelenskyy, the Servant of the People party has also risen. Its parliamentary rating has increased from 18% to 22%.
The "patriotic turn" effect
Commenting on the changes in public opinion that occurred between the two waves of the study, Vadym Denisenko, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, emphasized that this cannot yet be called a trend; another wave is needed to determine whether we have a true turning point in the trend or whether this was merely a situational fluctuation.
"If we outline what's happened this month, it's worth highlighting several key factors. First: the disappearance of Medvedchuk's channels, which attracted a large audience with deeply negative messages. It's not even a question of pro-Russian sentiment; they were fueling negativity. Second: people want at least some action. And they feel the government has started to do something. And third: the oligarchs have consolidated, and all the major television channels are broadcasting relatively positive news about the government," notes Vadim Denisenko.
The fact that the government has begun to do something was demonstrated by the sanctions imposed by the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) against the head of the Opposition Platform - For Life political council, imposed by Zelenskyy's decree. Viktor Medvedchuk and His wife, Oksana Marchenko. Most citizens have heard at least something about the introduction of these sanctions (39%) or are well informed about the topic (25%).
At the same time, more than a third of the population (36%) had heard nothing about this. Almost the same number (35%), unsurprisingly, were undecided on their assessment of these sanctions. Forty-one percent said they supported this move, while only 24% held the opposite opinion. Thus, Zelenskyy, with his sanctions against Medvedchuk, managed to reach a very significant portion of the electorate. And precisely because of this, he generated a surge of sympathy and trust among them.
It's worth noting that Zelenskyy's "patriotic turn" has so far had very little impact on his competitors' ratings. Petro Poroshenko's presidential rating has dropped slightly, from 16% to 14%, while Yulia Tymoshenko's has risen slightly, from 10% to 11%. There's no sufficient evidence yet to suggest any significant shift in voter support from Poroshenko to Zelenskyy.
On the pro-Kremlin flank, Yuriy Boyko's rating increased slightly, from 13% to 14%, while Medvedchuk's fell, from 6% to 4%, and Shariy's, from 4% to 2%. A month ago, we predicted that the only positive for Boyko was that Medvedchuk had lost to him in the intra-party competition to become the Opposition Platform - For Life candidate in the presidential election, but there would be no significant shift of voters from Zelenskyy to Boyko. This is precisely what we are seeing.
A Lost Chance
It would seem that Zelenskyy's most advantageous strategy has already been confirmed in practice, and all that remains is to repeat it: regularly attack the Kremlin's fifth column. This is a surefire win, since pro-Kremlin voters are a clear minority (their ceiling is around 20%), and when the government demonstrates its ability to strike in the interests of the majority, it enhances its credibility even among those who believe "what difference does it make?"
However, in reality, following the National Security and Defense Council's decision to impose sanctions against Medvedchuk, no significant government blows against pro-Kremlin forces have been observed. National Security and Defense Council meetings have become regular, but they focus on completely different topics and have not generated much public resonance.
At the same time, the government has failed to address any of the problems that society considers most pressing. These include low wages and pensions (37%), corruption (34%), high utility rates (33%), the war in Donbas (31%), and rising prices for basic goods (25%).
"The war issue has become a much more pressing concern for people; we're seeing a 3% increase," Vadym Denisenko notes. "The explanation is obvious: tensions are escalating at the front, and with it, the realization that nothing has been agreed upon. We're seeing a 5% increase in the relevance of price increases. That is, tariffs and price increases, corruption, and the war in Donbas are key topics on our immediate agenda. But all the activities of the National Security and Defense Council and the Presidential Office aren't aimed at addressing these issues. The only campaign the Presidential Office is waging is against Poroshenko."
As Denisenko notes, the following is currently happening in the information space: there are attacks on Poroshenko and his responses to Zelensky or someone from the president's inner circle. "This war of self-destruction between the two largest players only cements their core electorate, but has no global impact on public sentiment," Denisenko warns.
Given this, two possible scenarios can be predicted. The first is that Zelenskyy and Poroshenko (as well as their parties, Servant of the People and European Solidarity) will compete to see who can be more forceful and vocal in their fight against the Kremlin's fifth column. Zelenskyy could use the National Security and Defense Council and the security forces, while Poroshenko could use the patriotic public.
A completely different scenario is for Zelenskyy and Poroshenko to wage direct war against each other, to the delight of the Kremlin and its fifth column, who will be experiencing heavenly bliss. Incidentally, Poroshenko's ratings won't fall as a result; they'll even rise, since Poroshenko will be the aggrieved party, and this will be obvious not only to his supporters. Zelenskyy's ratings, however, will continue the downward slide he's been unaccustomed to for the past month.
Bankova, it seems, has chosen precisely this option. And for one simple reason: competition is too difficult for Zelenskyy. He sees power in his own hands, sees Poroshenko without it, and decides there's no need for any competition when he can simply eliminate the obstacle. In other words, the problem here isn't logic, but mentality. And that's very bad for Ukraine.
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