The coronavirus has made the government's chances of success minimal.
Exactly one year ago, on March 4, the Verkhovna Rada dismissed Oleksiy Honcharuk's government. Denys Shmyhal was immediately appointed in his place, and a new Cabinet of Ministers was formed. From their very first days in office, the new leaders faced a barrage of criticism: parliament failed to approve the government's program, leaving it without immunity from dismissal. In many ways, the skeptics were right, although in fairness, it must be said that this year has been an unprecedentedly difficult one for Ukraine. In what areas has Shmyhal's Cabinet encountered the greatest challenges, how long will the prime minister remain in office, and whether there have been any significant successes this year—read this article. "Apostrophe".
"They failed the main thing"
At the time of Honcharuk's Cabinet's resignation, Ukraine was already entering the battle against the coronavirus pandemic. At that point, the country was completely unprepared to address the new challenges, for which the resigning prime minister received a well-deserved dose of criticism. But it was left to his "heirs" to sort out the mountain of problems.
The most important issue was the appointment of a new Minister of Health, and an immediate mistake was made: the renowned cardiac surgeon Ilya Yemets was appointed to the position, but he didn't last even a month—he was dismissed on March 30. His place was taken by former Odesa Oblast Governor Maksym Stepanov. It's hard to call this appointment a success either. The saga of allocating funds to Ukrainian doctors fighting COVID-19, the shortage of oxygen and testing kits in hospitals, the failed summer preparations for the second wave of the coronavirus, and—finally—the complete anarchy surrounding the delivery of a coronavirus vaccine—all demonstrate Stepanov's incompetence.
The Verkhovna Rada has long been open about its desire to kill the Minister of Health. The most vocal advocates for this are members of the Voice faction, but even members of Servant of the People say he's hanging by a thread.
"He's failed not only vaccinations, but also testing, hospital preparations, oxygen, and medication procurement. He's failed in many areas, almost everything. And vaccinations have already become the final straw," Golos MP Olha Stefanishyna told Apostrophe.
It seems the Presidential Office won't be too reluctant to dismiss Stepanov, but first he needs to find a suitable replacement, approved by the Verkhovna Rada. Otherwise, the Ministry of Health will face the same chaos that has plagued the Ministry of Energy all year. The Health Minister's last chance to retain his position is the prompt delivery of new vaccines to Ukraine. The government has already failed to fulfill its promise to vaccinate the population among the first in Europe. However, there's still a small chance to rectify the situation if Ukraine does receive the promised 10 million vaccines from Israeli companies and nearly two million from China, which are scheduled to arrive by March 6, according to the contract.
"The government was effectively appointed at the height of the pandemic, and there was no time to get going. While there were certainly challenges in this regard, when it came to the pandemic response, they utterly failed, screwing up everything they could. They failed to purchase vaccines: other countries began signing contracts back in the summer of 2020. Looking at vaccinations now, it's clear to the naked eye that the logistics have completely failed. They're literally administering 1000 vaccinations a day. And another thing is the constant swirl of corruption surrounding them. Unclear companies, shell companies, and the price of the vaccine is a secret. They've failed at the most important thing—the fight against the epidemic," political scientist Alexander Leonov noted in an interview with Apostrophe.
Energy in Ukraine is a "wild west"
The saga of appointing a full-time head of the Ministry of Energy truly resembles a farce. March 4 marks a year since this key sector of Ukraine has been without a permanent leader: the longest-serving acting head was Olha Buslavets, who was rightly considered to be aligned with Rinat Akhmetov. In the fall, she was relieved of her post, and Buslavets's former deputy, Yuriy Boyko, became acting head. Less than a month later, Bankova decided to put her trust in Yuriy Vitrenko, setting in motion an saga that continues to this day.
While the Verkhovna Rada and the Cabinet of Ministers are unable to find consensus on the appointment of a new head of the Ministry of Energy, the Ukrainian energy sector continues to be wracked by the bacchanalia of Rinat Akhmetov and Ihor Kolomoisky. Both billionaires are not shy about speculating on everything within their reach. As Apostrophe reported, gasoline prices have been rising since late February—this is attributed to speculation in the oil market, which may be directly related to Kolomoisky's interests. State-owned enterprises Energoatom and Centrenergo are drowning in losses, while both oligarchs are generating billions in profits, essentially trading in air. Green energy in Ukraine is a separate story, with the state annually paying Akhmetov's DTEK several billion hryvnias in debt.
At the same time, Vitrenko promises to rectify the situation and even bring state-owned enterprises out of the red. "I will make Energoatom profitable, Centrenergo profitable, so that we can rid ourselves of our critical dependence on any energy sources from Russia," he declared in late February. Is this possible, considering that Akhmetov himself works closely with the Presidential Office and has direct influence over many personnel matters in the Cabinet of Ministers? It's hard to believe.
Another of Vitrenko's promises was to fix utility rates at their current level. However, the irony is that his arrival triggered the saga of their increase on January 1st—the order to do so was signed by the acting governor in the final days of 2020. Of course, there had been talk of tariff increases in Ukraine before—Yuriy Boyko himself warned of this back in early December—but it seemed the government failed to anticipate the full extent of public discontent with this decision and then began panicking and trying to extinguish the fire that had raged across the country.
Relations with the IMF are getting worse
As Apostrophe reported back in mid-February, the International Monetary Fund had effectively suspended cooperation with Ukraine. "The discussions were productive, but more progress is needed to complete the first review of the stand-by arrangement. Discussions will continue," said IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine Joost Ljungman following the meeting.
Translated from European diplomatic jargon, this means Ukraine won't receive the money anytime soon, and no one is willing to say when. It seems IMF representatives are tired of drawing Ukrainian officials' attention to the need to combat corruption, improve bank oversight, and finally begin addressing the state budget deficit. Judicial reform and the Ukrainian government's relationship with the heads of anti-corruption agencies are a separate story—primarily NABU Director Artem Sytnyk, whose tenure has been in limbo since September 2020. However, according to our publication, Zelenskyy has already compiled a shortlist of candidates who could theoretically satisfy the West—in which case, the Sytnyk issue could be resolved relatively painlessly.
The deteriorating relationship with the IMF is triggering a whole chain of difficulties in attracting funds from other creditors—without a wake-up call from Ukraine's main financial donor, the West is much more reluctant to provide funds. However, Ukraine certainly has enough money for the first few months: fortunately, at the end of the year, we received a loan from the World Bank and the European Union, and raised a tidy sum through the placement of Eurobonds. This will be enough for the summer, but what happens next remains to be seen.
Who will undermine Shmygal?
Rumors that Denys Shmyhal could be about to be fired have been swirling for almost a year—fortunately, there are plenty of grounds for this. And there are currently at least two contenders for the prime minister's post.
According to Apostrophe sources, the person most eager to take up this position is currently Minister of Community and Territorial Development Oleksiy Chernyshov, who joined the Cabinet of Ministers from his position as Chairman of the Kyiv Regional Administration.
True, while moving up the ladder, he didn't forget to drop anchor in his old position, keeping his former deputy, Vasily Volodin, in the position—first as acting director, and a few months later, he became a full-fledged director. However, his career advancement may not end there.
"If Chernyshov is promoted, Volodin will likely find a cushy position in the Cabinet of Ministers. Most likely, in the Chancellery. The Ministry of Regional Development will then go to the construction lobby. The MP is really begging to be removed from the 'servant'." Elena Shulyak“,” a source told the publication.
Meanwhile, Chernyshov, who is himself involved in construction projects, is on good terms with Zelenskyy: for New Year's, he and his wife vacationed with the president at the Synegora residence in the Carpathian region. A year ago, the president took Denys Shmyhal on a similar trip—the result is well-known.
Another serious contender for the prime minister's seat is Acting Energy Minister Yuriy Vitrenko. Last week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushed through the Verkhovna Rada to restore the powers of the acting minister. Now the former Naftogaz top manager can safely serve as acting minister. However, there is every reason to believe that an attempt will soon be made to push his candidacy through parliament again—not only to strengthen his position as head of the Ministry of Energy, but also to appoint him to the post of First Deputy Prime Minister. From there, it's just a short step to the position of prime minister.
"It seems quite plausible that Vitrenko will become a candidate to replace Shmyhal once he secures his full position as First Deputy Prime Minister. That's why he needed that status. This task has effectively been accomplished," political scientist and director of the Dialogue Institute for Socio-Political Projects, Andriy Miselyuk, told Apostrophe.
Few believed Denys Shmyhal and his government could last a full year, but they did. However, there are serious doubts that this Cabinet will have another anniversary.
"This prime minister definitely won't have a second anniversary. There's too much negativity surrounding him, although he's a hostage to circumstances in a way. Right now, the prime minister is a figurehead. We're essentially dealing with Zelenskyy's government 1 and Zelenskyy's government 2. If nothing changes, there will be a third. The only option is if the president is forced to make some concessions and enter into a coalition agreement—then the government might become more stable," political scientist Leonov believes.
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