Not all regional leaders were able to take advantage of the economic recovery after a three-year decline.
In this issue, DS summarizes regional development in the first half of the year. The methodology was described three months ago (when the ranking for the first quarter was published) and remains unchanged. The indicators of peaceful regions (excluding occupied Crimea and the semi-occupied Donbas) are compared across 24 socially significant criteria. All figures are taken from reports from the State Statistics Service and its regional offices.
Although the State Statistics Service only released half-year data for some indicators in early September, data for many criteria is already available for seven months. The overall picture allows us to confidently speak of positive socioeconomic development dynamics after a three-year decline that began during the Yanukovych-Azarov era. In January-July, 13 of the 23 peaceful regions increased industrial output compared to the same months of the previous year, 15 regions increased construction volumes, and 18 regions increased retail turnover (indicating growth in consumer demand and, consequently, in the financial capacity of the population). Real wages also increased in all 23 peaceful regions, although only Kyiv could boast of this in the first quarter. Agricultural production increased in 12 of the 22 regions not affected by the war.
Also encouraging are the increase in the total area of housing put into operation in 13 regions in the first half of the year, the positive balance of foreign direct investment (the difference between the inflow and outflow of non-resident equity capital) in 18 regions, and the growth in capital investment volumes in 20 regions.
However, it's also worth noting that indicators are still declining in most regions. For example, only four regions demonstrated positive export growth in the first half of the year, while only the Kyiv region saw an increase in the average number of full-time employees from January to July (compared to the same period last year). Wage arrears have decreased since January 1, placing them at the top of the rankings based on total scores.
On August 1, only seven regions achieved this. This indicates that the economic recovery trend remains fragile. Therefore, in its analysis, DS focused not on successes and achievements, but on the most disappointing indicators—even for those governors who scored at the top of the rankings.
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