Volodymyr Zelensky (Vitaliy Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)
The ruling party, and in particular the Servant of the People party, are increasingly shifting to the right of the political spectrum. Why is this happening, what further actions are the Servants of the People planning in this direction, how will this affect their ratings, and whether they now see Petro Poroshenko as their main competitor—all this is covered in this article. RBK-Ukraine.
The ideology of Servant of the People and Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been extremely vague from the very beginning of their political career. In the 2019 elections, this became one of the "green team's" key competitive advantages. By avoiding direct answers to controversial issues, they retained their appeal to voters in the West, the Southeast, and especially in the central Ukrainian electorate.
There were some attempts to formally define an ideological niche for themselves, but they seemed rather forced and artificial. Initially, the "servants" declared themselves libertarians, only to shift to seeking a "compromise between liberal and socialist ideas" in the fall of 2019. A few months later, they announced a shift to centrism, which over time transformed into "radical centrism."
It was said, half-jokingly, that Servant of the People should become a "sexy party." And at the last congress, held on March 13, it also proposed becoming a "smart party," meaning it would simultaneously serve in parliament, local councils, the executive branch, local government, and so on.
Amid all this self-searching, the "servants" led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have recently begun to noticeably tilt to the right in Ukrainian political terms. They are increasingly entering the niche commonly referred to as pro-Western, pro-Ukrainian, patriotic, right-wing, and so on, and, in pre-revolutionary parlance, "orange," as opposed to "white-blue."
Undoubtedly, the most notable step in this direction was the February sanctions against Viktor Medvedchuk and his entourage, as well as the closure of several television channels. Furthermore, the country's leadership's rhetoric regarding Donbas has become more explicit. The National Security and Defense Council continues to impose sanctions, although certainly not as extensive as in the first weeks. The authorities also recalled the 2010 Kharkiv Agreements as the first serious step toward surrendering national interests to Russia.
On the seventh anniversary of the victory of the Revolution of Dignity, parliament, by nearly 300 votes, adopted a resolution declaring Euromaidan a key moment in the development of Ukrainian statehood, unequivocally condemning the actions of the Berkut and Viktor Yanukovych's usurpation of power. The Servants of the People party voted 200 times in favor. And four dozen deputies from the mono-majority, including members of the faction's leadership, introduced bills punishing collaborationism, the authors of which included leaders of the far-right National Corps.
"Modern" versus "archaic"
According to RBC-Ukraine, Servant of the People has several other plans and ideas that could be considered "right-wing," at least stylistically. For example, they plan to finally resolve the issue of a large state emblem. However, this isn't the project that won the competition last fall and drew widespread criticism. The publication's sources promise "something much more modern." They plan to install tall flagpoles with the national flag, similar to the one in Kyiv, in Ukrainian regions.
The Cabinet of Ministers is developing a "Ukraine narrative"—a short text that, in theory, should explain what our country is all about. This text will likely later be enshrined in a document and used as a basis for government communications.
There's an idea to establish a separate "Day of Ukrainian Statehood." And there are currently debates about where this statehood should be traced—from the Ukrainian People's Republic (UNR) or from the time of Kyivan Rus'. So far, the latter view is winning out, as the Kremlin continues its attempts to privatize ancient Russian history, portraying Yaroslav the Wise and Vladimir Monomakh as practically "predecessors" of the current Russian president.
Interest in such matters does not automatically make the government and Servant of the People nationalists in the political science sense of the word. But in Ukrainian reality, attention to such issues alone traditionally serves as a marker of belonging to the political right.
Officially, Servant of the People continues to insist on a centrist positioning, a point repeated repeatedly at the last congress. The "party doctrine" adopted there contains many points reminiscent of Zelenskyy's speeches during his first term as president. For example, about "overcoming the split between 'Nazis' and 'vatniks'." Or about "a country of happy people, where different languages speak the same thing."
The document also contains some unambiguous messages. For example, that Ukraine's goal is to obtain a NATO Membership Action Plan. The cautious arguments of "servants of the people" that Ukraine's geopolitical choice may not be so clear-cut seem to have been put to rest.
But RBC-Ukraine's sources in Servant of the People and the Presidential Office are reluctant to discuss the observed rightward course, instead discussing the standoff between the "old" and the "new."
"We're currently facing a confrontation between modernism and archaism, not East and West. In this vein, we're talking about rethinking those same national symbols and so on. Let's say, 'Dakhabrakha,' not the Verevka Choir, with all due respect," said one of the SN staff members.
According to him, the "servants" will in no case exploit traditionally controversial topics in Ukrainian politics, such as language or history. "In our media circle, the top topic is the Shukhevych Stadium: who's for, who's against, who's accused whom of what—everyone's discussing it. But outside Kyiv, people are thinking about factories, hospitals, roads, the development of their cities and villages, all across Ukraine. This is the foundation of modernization; ideology is the crowning glory," the source explains.
Local work was one of the priorities that was constantly raised at the presidential party's congress. Especially since the local elections, Servant of the People gained significant representation in local government.
Changes to the party's structure, such as the creation of a national council of communities alongside the traditional political council, are aimed precisely at activating party activity in the regions. The lack of such work between elections has already ruined more than one top Ukrainian party, and SN wants to avoid this. However, they acknowledge that this is an extremely complex task, primarily hampered by the human factor.
"In our country, patriotism has been privatized by right-wing and far-right forces, which is natural, given our history and the current war in Donbas. But in mono-ethnic countries like France, you don't have to be Le Pen to be a patriot," argues one of the leaders of the presidential party.
According to him, Servant of the People is now more similar to the parties of the late 2000s after the Orange Revolution, such as Batkivshchyna, Front for Change, and Our Ukraine. It certainly doesn't resemble the Party of Regions.
Voters in the southeast, he said, relied on the myth that Zelensky was their "guy": from Kryvyi Rih, Russian-speaking, etc. But during his presidency, they never saw any action to realize this image.
"They perceive our latest decisions as: 'Ah, well, yes, that's what it was all about. Look, they shut down the wrong channels, they're imposing sanctions against the wrong people, everything is clear with them – they're not ours,'" said a source in the SN.
A source in the Presidential Office offers his interpretation of the current government's "centrism." "Previously, centrism meant we ignored controversial issues. Now, we're ready to discuss them. But at the same time, the extreme flanks—the pro-Russian and radical nationalist—can't dictate the agenda for the entire country. We want to 'expand' the center, leaving both of them on the margins," the source said.
In a conversation with RBC-Ukraine, the head of the presidential party, Oleksandr Kornienko, insisted that the ruling party is becoming not right-wing, but "Ukraine-centric." "We choose the methods and tools necessary for certain tasks. The aggressor country has become more assertive, fifth columns within Ukraine have become more active—and so our political force, led by the president, has begun to choose a more assertive toolkit," he said.
Moving West
Certainly, the ideological maneuvers of the "Servant of the People," no matter how they are described, have a direct impact on the country's electoral map. Sanctions against Medvedchuk and the television channels quickly gave the "Servants of the People" a positive ratings boost.
According to Servant of the People's internal polling, their strongest support is currently in central Ukraine. It's slightly weaker in the south and west. In the east, support for the ruling party is already significantly weaker. The situation is better in the north, but still not the most favorable for the "Servants of the People," owing to Russia's geographic proximity. And in the future, Servant of the People expects to strengthen its position primarily in the central region of Ukraine, and to some extent in the west.
Meanwhile, the eastern regions remain "unattended" in an electoral sense. "It's something like 2014 there. They're in a downward trend, they're upset, once again no one understood or supported them, and they don't want to go to the polls. It will be difficult for the current leaders in this flank to achieve anything; the electorate will fragment," a source in Servant of the People speculates.
Alexey Antipovich, director of the sociological group "Rating," agrees with this assessment. He believes the electoral southeast could split into several segments. "There could be a powerful, radically pro-Russian politician, like Medvedchuk. Then someone more moderate, pro-Russian or pro-Soviet, like the Opposition Platform — For Life party. And some sort of 'party of industrialists and entrepreneurs,' who advocate for order, wages, 'no matter the language,' and so on," he told the publication.
According to the sociologist, if the eastern flank ends up split into three parts, and Servant of the People strengthens its position in the center and west, then all the government's actions and plans will be justified. "And for Poroshenko, as the most nationalistic politician right now, there won't be much room for maneuver," Antipovich concluded.
Servant of the People's shift to the right should naturally lead to increased competition with Petro Poroshenko and European Solidarity. Zelenskyy, in almost every speech, never misses an opportunity to criticize or taunt his predecessor. But the Servant of the People doesn't consider the former president a competitor.
"We've already answered the question of competing with Poroshenko in 2019. Petro Oleksiyovych will still have to try harder to compete with us in any future elections," Kornienko told the publication.
According to political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, there won't be any significant shift between Servant of the People and European Solidarity voters in any case. "From the very beginning, since 2019, the antagonism between the two leaders has also determined the antagonism of the electorate – the absolute majority of Zelenskyy's supporters were against Poroshenko. On the other hand, there's a similar position – an aggressive rejection of Zelenskyy among Poroshenko's supporters. For them, he remains an absolute evil; they don't perceive him as a person," Fesenko told the publication.
With their recent actions, Zelensky and his party will be able to attract, above all, their former supporters in the patriotic camp, the political scientist believes. RBC-Ukraine's sources in Servant of the People offer a similar forecast.
Beyond the electoral consequences nationwide, recent events inevitably impacted the SN faction in the Verkhovna Rada. After a protracted internal battle for the deputies' votes, the supposedly pro-Russian influence group gave way to representatives of the pro-European, patriotic wing.
"There's an unspoken internal agreement within the faction that we have 'Mensheviks,' but we don't marginalize them or expel them. In exchange, they don't use the media to widely promote the 'vatnik' discourse. As part of that same agreement, people have begun to publicly 'kill' their faction colleagues less," a well-informed source at SN said.
According to Alexander Kornienko, after more than a year and a half of working together, the deputies of the mono-majority have already become somewhat accustomed to each other, and everyone understands what to expect from each other.
"No one will force deputies who clearly don't support certain ideological decisions, like the resolution on the Revolution of Dignity, to vote for it; no one will expel them from their faction. But these same deputies must also be prepared for the faction not to support their other initiatives, such as language, en masse," Kornienko said.
At the same time, no one prohibits SN deputies from openly expressing their views that run counter to the "party line," MP Oleksandr Kachura, who did not vote for the resolution on Euromaidan, confirmed to the publication.
"I wouldn't say we're moving far beyond the centrist niche. There's no real action in that direction. If we were truly moving to the right, we'd be renaming things, strengthening Ukrainian language legislation, and so on. But we're not doing that," he told the publication.
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In its second year in power, the presidential team is trying to more clearly define its place on the country's electoral map. In the case of the Servant of the People party, this is to establish a more solid foundation rather than simply fluctuate in opinion polls based on Zelenskyy's personal rating. For now, however, the Servant of the People's main asset remains the president himself. And the core ideology of the Servant of the People, and indeed the entire government as a whole, is still that they are "Volodymyr Zelenskyy's team."
In topic: A year and ten months into the OPU's work: how Zelensky's team is fulfilling its promises
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