There won't be a real fight against either the largest oligarchs or the oligarchic system as such. But there will be fairy tales, writes DS.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Ihor Kolomoisky / Office of the President
For two weeks now, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his team have been talking about their fight against the oligarchs. It all began on March 12, when Zelenskyy delivered a video address to the citizens of Ukraine, literally declaring that the oligarchic class in Ukraine was coming to an end. "We clearly see the difference between the concepts of 'big business' and 'oligarchic class.' But names make no difference here," Zelenskyy emphasized. "One thing is important: are you ready to operate legally and transparently, or do you want to continue creating monopolies, controlling the media, influencing MPs and other government officials? The former is supported. The latter is ending."
He continued this theme the following day at the Servant of the People party congress. There, Zelenskyy emphasized that "during these two years in power, the new team had to overcome resistance from the oligarchs." And here, he said, is the result: "In less than two years, we've accomplished what other politicians promised for decades and then successfully 'dumped.'"
And then, on March 22, Zelenskyy's advisor, Oleh Ustenko, shared more details. He stated on Radio NV that Zelenskyy had begun a process of de-oligarchization in the country, aimed not at combating individual representatives of big business, but at changing the system, reducing barriers to doing business, and establishing uniform rules of the game for everyone. Ustenko noted that he wasn't talking about naming a specific oligarch, but about changing the closed system that had been developing in Ukraine over the past decades. According to him, the president's goal is to pursue de-oligarchization "on a broad front," acting in many directions. "It's abnormal for economic sectors to be controlled by large oligarchic groups. There must be progress here, and this is another battle the government is waging to achieve de-oligarchization of the economy," Ustenko emphasized.
Results of the previous round
Zelenskyy had already launched a similar attack on the oligarchs six months ago, before the local elections. On September 9, Ustenko, speaking on ZIK TV (which was not yet interfering with Zelenskyy's agenda), said: "The president understands very well the need to overcome the oligarchy in Ukraine... As for de-oligarchization, this is a very clear priority for the head of state, and one of the tasks he has set for the Cabinet of Ministers."
In fact, Ustenko is a longtime member of Zelenskyy's team. He has served as Zelenskyy's advisor since May 28, 2019. It would seem that now would be the time for him to boast about the concrete successes of Zelenskyy, the Servant of the People party, and their government in de-oligarchization: what laws, presidential decrees, and Cabinet resolutions have been adopted for this purpose and what results have been achieved. However, in reality, absolutely nothing has been accomplished. And the results are correspondingly poor.
Incidentally, Ustenko himself gives a piquant account of the result. Six months ago, he stated that "without oligarchs in the catastrophic form in which they exist in Ukraine," our GDP by the end of the year would have been around $400 billion, not the $150 billion expected this year. "The same situation existed last year, and the year before. This means our economy is missing out on about $250 billion it could have achieved without the oligarchs," Ustenko said then. Six months later, he reiterates that without the oligarchs, "we could have had a GDP of $400 billion by the end of last year; in fact, we have just over $160 billion."
So, according to Zelenskyy's advisor, nothing fundamental has changed in two years; we're still missing out on $250 billion in GDP annually due to the oligarchs. And Zelenskyy, contrary to his advisor, claims that "in less than two years, we've accomplished what other politicians have been promising for decades..." No, Bankova first needs to deliver an additional $250 billion in GDP annually, and only then will we be able to believe in Zelenskyy's miracle—and listen with interest to how he pulled it off.
Reasons for a new round
Nevertheless, the importance of Zelenskyy's renewed focus on the fight against the oligarchs cannot be overlooked. The primary reason for Zelenskyy's return to this topic is domestic political. It appears that the Ukrainian Presidential Administration is seriously preparing for early elections (both presidential and parliamentary), and therefore Zelenskyy is trying to cultivate the image of "a man of the people fighting the oligarchs."
It's noteworthy that he delivered his video address to Ukrainians after the release of a new Forbes rating, according to which Rinat Akhmetov's fortune had tripled over the past year, while that of Viktor Pinchuk, Kostiantyn Zhevago, Ihor Kolomoisky, Gennady Bogolyubov, and Vadym Novinsky had roughly doubled. It doesn't seem like they're dissatisfied with Zelenskyy. That's why Zelenskyy, and Ustenko after him, began to say that "surnames don't matter here"—that the system needs to be changed.
The second reason is Washington, which has been pestering Zelenskyy with its calls for Kolomoisky to be punished. On March 5, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Kolomoisky's inclusion on the US sanctions list "for his involvement in significant corruption while serving as head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration from 2014 to 2015." And so, to get out of the situation, Zelenskyy began claiming he was fighting not individual names, but the system.
What Zelensky will and won't do
It's possible that Zelenskyy will simply do nothing. That is, that his words will be completely ignored. However, it's highly likely that he will attempt to feign a fight against the oligarchs. Ustenko asserts that Zelenskyy has already begun this fight. According to him, it began with subsoil use. Indeed, on March 19, the National Security and Defense Council decided to impose personal economic sanctions on 19 companies. However, here's the rub: these are precisely personal sanctions against specific companies, yet Zelenskyy, contrary to his own words and those of his advisor Ustenko, has yet to make any decisions that would upend the system.
In reality, Zelenskyy will continue to target various minor players to feign a struggle. However, there will be no real struggle against either the largest oligarchs or the oligarchic system as such.
If Zelensky were planning a real fight, we'd all know about it by now. Because the oligarchic television channels would be reporting terrible horror stories about Zelensky in every newscast, not the flattering fairy tales we've been hearing for the past two years.
Ustenko, we emphasize again, has been Zelenskyy's advisor since the first days of his presidency. And he knows full well that Zelenskyy had the potential to break the oligarchic system in ways none of his predecessors had.
The experience of our more fortunate neighbors, such as Poland, shows that oligarchs don't exist where big business is kept out of big politics. Zelenskyy could have simply prevented oligarchs from influencing his Servant of the People party. Following the parliamentary elections, this party formed a ruling monopoly. This means that no one prevented Zelenskyy and his party from creating a government completely independent of the oligarchs and beginning to implement an anti-oligarchic strategy: passing relevant laws, presidential decrees, and Cabinet resolutions that would dismantle all elements of the oligarchic system.
Ustenko knew perfectly well what course of action was required. And if Zelenskyy had done all this back then, in 2019, he wouldn't have to ask the oligarchs rhetorical questions now: "Do you want to continue creating monopolies, controlling the media, influencing MPs and other government officials?" The oligarchs wouldn't have monopolies in entire industries, control over major media outlets, or their own influence groups within the government or the "Servant of the People" faction. And the oligarchs themselves wouldn't exist, either, because without monopolies, media empires, ministers, and MPs, they're no longer oligarchs, but simply ordinary businessmen, albeit large ones.
And Zelenskyy isn't even talking about anything like that right now. Although, if he had any real plans for de-oligarchization, he would have already begun forming a corresponding coalition in parliament and proposing bills to weaken the oligarchs' influence in the economy, media, and politics.
But instead, we'll probably be told the same old story about an additional $250 billion in GDP per year when Zelensky defeats the oligarchs. When.
In topic: Which Ukrainian oligarchs might be next targeted for a purge?
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