People's Deputy Yulia Tymoshenko (photo: Vitaly Nosach / RBC-Ukraine)
Two years ago, Yulia Tymoshenko fell just 2.5 percent short of challenging Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the second round of the presidential election. Since then, the Batkivshchyna leader has tirelessly criticized the new government, while not ruling out the possibility of forming a coalition with it. The political prospects of Yulia Tymoshenko and her party are discussed in this article. RBK-Ukraine.
In previous installments of our series on the state of affairs of the country's major political players, we discussed Petro Poroshenko and his team's "revenge plan," how Volodymyr Zelenskyy's team is searching for its ideology, and the Opposition Platform - For Life (OPZZh) "shareholders' club" and its prospects.
Yulia Tymoshenko's third attempt at the presidency in 2019 ended in defeat. The Batkivshchyna leader had been preparing for this battle in full swing, launching her campaign ahead of her rivals. She offered Ukrainians a carefully crafted "New Course," laced with sophisticated ideas like revising the social contract and introducing blockchain.
The new Tymoshenko was expected to expand her base of voters, and for a time, she succeeded. Since the summer of 2018, political functionaries began to make inroads toward Turovska Street, where the Batkivshchyna party office and its leader are located. Former enemies and potential allies alike sought to curry favor with Tymoshenko, whose electoral ratings promised victory in the presidential campaign.
But the emergence of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the race changed the balance of power, relegating the veteran politicians to the background. He managed to lure undecided voters away from many candidates, including Tymoshenko. Ultimately, the Batkivshchyna leader finished third, 2,5% short of qualifying for the runoff.
After her defeat, Tymoshenko shifted from denial to compromise. During the parliamentary re-elections, she openly declared her willingness to support the young president by forming a coalition with Servant of the People. But the new ruling party, having won the majority of seats, had no need for allies.
Since February of this year, Batkivshchyna has once again begun talking about joining a coalition with Zelenskyy's party. The intensity with which this scenario is circulating in the media confirms that Tymoshenko has not abandoned her plans to return to government: if not as president, then as prime minister.
Growth problems
Batkivshchyna's results in the summer of 2019 were lower than those of its leader during the presidential race – nearly 8,2% versus 13,4%. This political force secured third place and the fourth-largest faction in the Rada. Approximately once a week, MPs from Tymoshenko's party meet on Turovska Street to discuss parliamentary work. Meetings on other issues are held daily at the Batkivshchyna office.
"The party holds almost daily meetings on various issues and with varying compositions. It depends on the issues being raised. If there's a need to discuss legal matters, we call a legal meeting. If we need to discuss issues related to the work of local organizations, we call an organizational meeting," Deputy Head of Batkivshchyna MP Serhiy Vlasenko told RBC-Ukraine.
He is one of 11 deputies, each overseeing a separate area of work. Vlasenko oversees the legal department. Ivan Kyrylenko oversees party organizational work and heads the executive secretariat of the political council. Serhiy Sobolev is responsible for the parliamentary faction. Hryhoriy Nemyria oversees the international affairs department.
Andriy Kozhemyakin is responsible for party security. Ivan Krulko is deputy for financial affairs. Vadym Ivchenko coordinates the party with agricultural and farming associations. Oleksandr Abdullin, a longtime Tymoshenko strategist, is in charge of information and analysis, particularly media relations.
All of them are part of the Batkivshchyna leader's inner circle. Tymoshenko listens to their advice most often, but she always has the final say.
Following the parliamentary elections, Batkivshchyna retreated into its usual opposition, criticizing the government and especially the Cabinet of Ministers. In terms of ratings, 2019 was not a particularly successful year for Tymoshenko's political force. Its support rates stagnated at the level of the parliamentary campaign results. However, a constant emphasis on social issues bore fruit, and Batkivshchyna was able to win back some of its former supporters disillusioned with the new government.
In the local elections of the fall of 2020, Tymoshenko's political force intended to gain revenge. The main goal was to secure as many seats as possible in local councils at various levels across the country. To some extent, Batkivshchyna's plan worked: it placed second in this category, behind only the president's party.
"Batkivshchyna's rating is currently around 12,5%, and Yulia Tymoshenko's presidential rating is roughly the same. Support for Yulia Tymoshenko and her political party was stable throughout 2020, at around 8-11%. If we take the parliamentary elections as a benchmark, both the party's rating and Yulia Tymoshenko's rating have definitely increased," Oleksiy Antipovich, director of the Rating sociological group, told the publication.
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes that Tymoshenko managed to improve her position due to the winter exacerbation of the tariff issue, which is a sensitive issue for Ukrainians.
"Tymoshenko is perceived as one of the critics of the tariff issue and offers solutions to it. Plus, she constantly promotes social issues. And this attracts those segments of the population for whom these issues are relevant," the expert noted in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine.
According to Antipovych, since the beginning of 2021, Yulia Tymoshenko's support level has been either stable or slightly increasing from one poll to the next. However, Batkivshchyna and its leader remain fourth in the ratings. Tymoshenko's personal support has never risen above her level in the first round of the presidential election.
Off the record, party sources lament that their growth is hampered, among other things, by limited access to the media. They say that, unlike other opposition forces, Batkivshchyna lacks its own major media outlets. At the same time, it should be noted that Tymoshenko is a frequent guest on television channels owned by Ukrainian oligarchs. And within the faction, several MPs can be found with connections to the country's wealthiest individuals.
"We conduct sociological surveys and monitor those commissioned by other political forces. We see several trends and tendencies. The first is a decline in Servant of the People's ratings, which is objective, because over the past two years, they've shown that the idea of new faces is a complete farce and unworkable. All other parties' ratings are gradually increasing, more or less evenly," Vlasenko told the publication.
At the same time, he admits that Batkivshchyna is dissatisfied with the rate of improvement in its ratings and is looking for ways to speed things up. Its electoral base, made up primarily of older people, is thinning year after year.
As another Batkivshchyna representative, Ivan Krulko, explained, the party wants to expand its constituency by securing support from, among other things, the younger generation.
"During the presidential campaign, Yulia Tymoshenko proposed the 'New Course'—a programmatic document that addressed all aspects of the country's life. But first and foremost, it was aimed at the middle class and young people who could realize their potential in our country. I believe the 'New Course' has not lost its relevance," Krulko told the publication.
In addition to the "New Course," Batkivshchyna plans to attract Ukrainians' attention through referendums. Despite criticism of the presidential law, Tymoshenko stated that she will "help the people" express their will and initiate votes on five issues: the transfer of Ukrainian gas and nuclear power to citizens with a 30% profit margin, the sale of agricultural land and strategic assets, and the legalization of marijuana and gambling.
Batkivshchyna plans to assemble initiative groups to hold the referendum after the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, approximately in May, says Vadym Ivchenko.
"We want the president, through a popular initiative, to resolve the issues of fair tariffs, the sale of strategic property, the legalization of marijuana, and the land market. Therefore, we will continue to work in the field and convey to the people that we are the only party that is actually trying to achieve change, not just going on air and saying the right things," he told RBC-Ukraine.
Lend a shoulder
The constant attacks on the government haven't stopped Tymoshenko from maintaining contact with them and attempting to build bridges. In November and December, Batkivshchyna backed up the presidential faction by casting votes for the 2021 state budget.
In January, on the day Tymoshenko's political party was literally distributing the presidential referendum document in the Rada session hall, journalists photographed a friendly exchange between her leader and the head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak. Tymoshenko explained this by saying she was ready to "talk to all officials" to "change the state's strategy."
RBC-Ukraine's sources close to Zelenskyy claim that communication between Tymoshenko and Bankova often occurs through Yermak. The president rarely communicates with the Batkivshchyna leader, mostly during his meetings with parliamentary faction leaders.
Photos of Tymoshenko and Yermak's correspondence fueled rumors of a coalition being formed between Servant of the People and Batkivshchyna. Discussions of such a scenario have been periodically surfacing in the media since at least December. In March, Tymoshenko reiterated her faction's readiness to join the coalition, adding that the proposal "remains on Servant of the People's table."
"Is Servant of the People ready to attract anyone to the coalition? Because the coalition will be faced with the question of forming a government and a new action plan. We already have a ready-made action plan, a 'New Course,' which we have presented in all its aspects, and we have the people who will implement it," Ivchenko noted.
Meanwhile, Batkivshchyna is laying down its own conditions for the new alliance: a radical change in the country's governance and a review of the policies of the new government, in which Yulia Tymoshenko could take over the prime minister's seat. The Batkivshchyna leader is trying to diplomatically deflect journalists' questions about her plans to take any high-ranking positions. However, she has confirmed her willingness to join the Cabinet of Ministers.
"Any alliances can only be formed on the basis of shared strategic and ideological approaches. If we can convince the ruling team that issues of strategic property, land management, and citizen protection need to be reconsidered, this could be a good basis for any negotiations. We're not turning them down," Krulko explained.
Publicly, the presidential team is reluctant to dismiss the possibility of a coalition with Tymoshenko's political force. However, the differences in the two parties' views could pose a significant obstacle, says Servant of the People leader Oleksandr Kornienko.
"I wouldn't categorically say it's impossible. But right now, I find it difficult to understand how we can form a coalition with anyone in the Verkhovna Rada, given that their positions differ from ours. Regarding Batkivshchyna, there are several issues on which we fundamentally disagree. These include our attitude toward the land market, privatization, and liberal reforms. I doubt we'll be able to reach agreement with Batkivshchyna on these issues," Kornienko explained to RBC-Ukraine.
Volodymyr Fesenko admits that Bankova may consider Tymoshenko as a candidate for the role of anti-crisis manager in the government. However, the expert clarified that the Batkivshchyna leader's status is unlikely to change anytime soon. He is confident that as long as the mono-majority legally exists, there will be no coalitions with other political forces.
"I don't think the integrity of the mono-majority is in any immediate danger. Therefore, the formation of a new coalition is not currently in sight. This means there will be no other prime ministers, unless the president himself wants to replace Shmyhal. But then Shmyhal will be replaced by a non-partisan, technocratic figure," Fesenko said.
One of Zelenskyy's sources confirmed that Tymoshenko is indeed trying to convince the presidential team that she is best suited to handle crises. But the problem is that she is unwilling to make concessions and rejects any conditions other than her own.
Sometimes, it's not just Batkivshchyna but also the presidential political force that initiates talk of a coalition, in order to keep its own MPs on their toes. After all, not everyone in the faction supports such an alliance, says an RBC-Ukraine source. Some do so for ideological reasons. Others understand that their votes will be devalued and will no longer be bargained for in support of decisions that are important to the party line.
"Tymoshenko finds it uncomfortable to be in opposition because it doesn't allow her or her team to develop. And, apparently, she's tired of this state of affairs. Therefore, she's looking for ways to move into power. But no real coalition negotiations are underway," noted an informed source close to Zelenskyy.
Besides the premiership, Tymoshenko's only remaining option is Option B: trying her luck in the presidential race for a fourth time. Batkivshchyna is speaking cautiously about her plans to run for the post, saying she'll only be able to answer that question as the presidential campaign approaches. Several Batkivshchyna sources claim there's no concrete decision yet.
For now, her chances of becoming the country's leader appear as dim as her chances of becoming prime minister. Tymoshenko has the potential to rise in her approval ratings, but they are currently capped at 20%, according to Oleksiy Antypovych. He points out that during the 2018 election campaign, the Batkivshchyna leader's ratings also reached 18-21%.
According to the sociologist, Tymoshenko's trust rate currently stands at 30%. Of these, only 9% of respondents fully trust her. Another 21% somewhat trust her, but this number only partially translates into a support rating.
"It should be divided equally to achieve the highest possible rating. That's roughly 11%, plus 9%. That's still 20%. I wouldn't say her voter base will exceed 20% right now. Because the country is changing, the voter base is changing, and Yulia Tymoshenko is changing, but not in her slogans and approaches. It will be quite difficult for her to attract a completely new voter base," the director of the Rating group suggested.
This is the very corner that Tymoshenko's other rival, Petro Poroshenko, finds herself in. No matter how effectively she criticizes the government, the Batkivshchyna leader's platform sticks to old messages, failing to infuse them with new meanings and ideas.
She managed to win back lost supporters and mobilize sufficiently disciplined voters, but has yet to expand her electoral core. Only a small portion of those disillusioned with the ruling team have reoriented themselves toward the established politicians. Far more are eager to see new (even if only nominally) and professional figures in power. Without a significant renewal and revision of their strategies, the established parties will be unable to meet this demand.
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