What future awaits the Kyiv authorities, who have lost the trust of the United States?
Looking at the current situation in Ukraine, it's very reminiscent of the events of three years ago. The Poroshenko regime has repeated all the "mistakes" of the Yanukovych regime. Despite having 100% US support for its actions, it managed not only to squander it but also to stand in the way of advancing their geopolitical interests. And the Americans never forgive anyone for that.
And if Petro Poroshenko makes a mistake, and his team shows weakness and wavers at the first sign of trouble, then the current guarantor of Ukraine's Constitution could very quickly find himself not only in Yanukovych's shoes, but even... in Rostov. Although, more likely, in Minsk or Astana. Where else would he go in that case, not Washington?
How it was
In 2010, the United States did everything possible to bring Viktor Yanukovych to power in Ukraine. Washington disliked his main rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, for all intents and purposes. First, she was beyond their control. Second, she presented their main political adversary with the "2009 gas contract," which would have put Kyiv in a very awkward position going forward. Third, Moscow openly provided information support to "Lady Yu" and was willing to support her financially if necessary, suggesting some sort of agreement between them behind the back of the world's policeman.
The bet on Yanukovych paid off brilliantly, allowing the US to solve several key problems at once. What could be better than a Ukrainian president who is also an American puppet? That's right, only a Ukrainian president, an American puppet, who everyone considers "pro-Russian." He can commit any abomination: steal, murder, rape, and all the blame will fall not on those who control him (albeit not directly, but through indirect means), but on your main political opponents. This is the pinnacle of diplomacy.
No one today denies that it was Viktor Yanukovych who inflicted the most damage, both directly and indirectly, to Ukraine's pro-Russian development vector. Under his rule, the media talked a lot about the Kharkiv Agreements, which… were never implemented. He made grandiose plans in collaboration with Russia, which were shelved whenever they needed to be implemented.
At the same time, the media remained silent about the ban on pro-Russian movements in Ukraine and the persecution of their leaders. Meanwhile, it was Yanukovych who brought Svoboda's Nazis into parliament and allowed the rise of the organizations that would later overthrow him.
When the Americans had played the Yanukovych card to the maximum and he could no longer be of any use (all the abominations had been committed, and the preconditions for a Euro-turn in society had been created), he was removed with the help of the "Maidan", while at the same time unleashing a war that the US so desperately needed on the borders of both Russia and the EU (if the suit is right, then why not kill two birds with one stone).
At the same time, we must remember the names of all the "heroes of the Maidan." Those who, while holding government positions, effectively "betrayed" Yanukovych in 2013. That spring, all of Ukraine's oligarchs—Akhmetov, Kolomoisky, and Grigorishin—came out against the emerging new oligarchic "family" empire of Ukraine's fourth president. (Read more: Konstantin Grigorishin, Distinguished Oligarch of Ukraine and Russia), Poroshenko, Novinsky (Read more: Vadim Novinsky. From Raiders to Peacekeepers), as well as other, smaller-scale Ukrainian business clans. They all became terrified and upset that some "upstarts" would push them away from the trough.
The result was the "Maidan" and the overthrow of the Yanukovych regime, which was promptly led not only by the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, but also by the head of Yanukovych's administration, Sergei Levochkin (within the limits of his authority, of course).
But let's return to the present day
Poroshenko, having come to power in mid-2014, spent the next two years strengthening his vertical power structure and installing loyalists in leading positions (as did Yanukovych, by the way). The struggle with Ihor Kolomoisky lasted for more than six months, gradually succeeding in wresting Odesa, Zaporizhia, some parts of Western Ukraine, and even half of his native Dnipropetrovsk.
The president's standoff with Arseniy Yatsenyuk and his People's Front has lasted almost a year. It's not over yet, but the guarantor of the Constitution has already taken the premiership from his "partners." Petro Poroshenko has also installed loyalists as heads of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Prosecutor General's Office. He's also currently sweeping Yatsenyuk's men out of lucrative positions in the government apparatus and installing his own "pickpockets" to replace Arseniy's thieving friends.
And then the attack took a different direction. Passions have still not died down over the arson attack on Inter, one of Ukraine's main television channels, owned by Dmitry Firtash (Read more: DMYTRO FIRTASH. THE STORY OF A TERNOPIL BILLIONAIRE) (by the way, to Sergei Levochkin's partner - Read more: Levochkin. "The Gray Cardinal" and his sister). Meanwhile, the head of state already wants to gain complete control over one of the leading television channels and the official mouthpiece of the "opposition bloc," thereby weakening this political project, which is gaining ground and becoming personally dangerous to him. Meanwhile, part of the "opposition bloc" (Rinat Akhmetov) is colluding with Poroshenko, who is eager to regain his "controlling stake." Reports suggest he has received full approval from Bankova, and so he is simply waiting and not intervening while his "comrades" are being crushed.
On the other hand, the influential Ukrainian publication "Zerkalo Nedeli" recently published information that Petro Poroshenko is attempting to seize control of PrivatBank, the main asset of Kolomoisky's empire. The official pretext was allegedly the IMF's demand to ensure the manageability of this Ukrainian banking monster, which is capable of destroying the country's financial stability with a single wave of the oligarch's hand. Igor Kolomoisky is resisting as best he can, but so far he's only been fending off attacks and retreating. Everything points to either nationalizing PrivatBank, which would mean political ruin for Benya, or, even worse, forcing him to sell it to his arch-enemy.
A similar situation is unfolding with another oligarch, Konstantin Grigorishin, whose work is being prevented by Bankova, who is attempting to use the announced privatization of the remaining state property to lay his hands on the assets his business empire needs. And so it is throughout the country. The president's men are seizing control of the main cash flows and pushing out those who have been accustomed to feeding off the budget for years, even decades. Who would like that?
In short, today we once again see in Ukraine a single oligarch who wants to become the country's primary, and then sole, center of power. President Poroshenko, like President Yanukovych, is tightening the screws on the remaining oligarchs and preparing their "lustration." They cannot help but understand this. This means a second oligarchic conspiracy, this time against the current president, is entirely possible. Everything is already in place for this: the impoverished population is indignant, and under-disarmed gangs of "volunteers" are ready to burn, kill, and plunder. They essentially have nothing left to lose. The Poroshenko regime is increasingly jailing their leaders and mere "activists" and will clearly not stop until they are crushed as a real force. Therefore, one should not be surprised by the call of the "volunteers" last night during their clashes with police at a Kyiv construction site during yet another defense of the "interests of the people": "Semyon, lead us into the attack."
Epilogue
At first glance, this might seem ridiculous and impossible. Would anyone dare raise a hand against the US-backed figure in Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, whose position was blessed by Ambassador Pyatt himself? But only at first glance, and only to those who still consider Viktor Yanukovych a "pro-Russian" president of Ukraine, and not a cunning con man whose human "weaknesses" the Americans simply exploited to achieve their geopolitical goals.
The situation today looks very similar to what it was in 2013. If Poroshenko's regime doesn't come to its senses and stop interfering with the advancement of American interests in the region, the United States could "sacrifice" it. He has already played his role in their plans, and now, fighting for his own selfish interests, he has begun to interfere with his masters, which makes him so similar to the Yanukovych regime of 2013. This means that the aggrieved Ukrainian oligarchs and other "patriots" could be given the order to "sic 'em."
The author's position may not coincide with the editorial position.
Author: Georgy Nizovoy
Read more: Konstantin Grigorishin, Distinguished Oligarch of Ukraine and Russia
Vadim Novinsky. From Raiders to Peacekeepers
DMYTRO FIRTASH. THE STORY OF A TERNOPIL BILLIONAIRE
Levochkin. "The Gray Cardinal" and his sister
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