Vitaly Yarema
Activists, populists, and Kolomoisky's supporters have united against the Prosecutor General. The president has no plans to fire the Prosecutor General yet, but Bankova needs high-profile investigation results by the Maidan anniversary.
The sword of Damocles, the resignation of Prosecutor General Vitaliy Yarema, hangs over him. In parliament, deputies (primarily from the coalition) have begun collecting signatures for a vote of no confidence in the chief state prosecutor, which, under a parliamentary-presidential republic, means Petro Poroshenko is obligated to remove him. However, the "anti-Yaremin" lobby currently lacks the required 150 signatures to consider the petition, but that could change at any moment.
Run, Yarema, run!
Discontent with Yarema has been building since his appointment as Prosecutor General last June, but the dissatisfied elements have been constantly changing. Initially, the police officer's arrival was met with hostility within the Prosecutor General's Office itself, but this wave of discontent quickly subsided, as throughout his months in office, Yarema acted more as an advocate for the majority of his subordinates, refusing both a harsh purge and mass lustration.
But internal discontent gave way to external discontent, sparked by Igor Kolomoisky's team. It all began with their attempt to remove Dnipropetrovsk prosecutor Roman Fedyk, which Yarema resisted. It continued with prosecutorial inspections of Privat enterprises and criminal proceedings initiated by the Prosecutor General's Office against the oligarch governor's deputies. And then, as often happens, the snowball began to grow, engulfing the initial causes. Now a war is raging between Yarema and Kolomoisky, no longer waged through arguments but simply threats and warnings. Like the phrase "Run, Yarema, run" on the Facebook page of a member of parliament from the entourage of Dnipropetrovsk governor Borys Filatov.
Attack on a broad front
But if it were only Kolomoisky, Yarema wouldn't have to worry. The Prosecutor General's problem is that he has pitted a diverse array of forces against himself. These include businessmen, who, as rumors in parliamentary circles say, have been harassed by the Prosecutor's Office in recent months with inspections that it will soon lose the right to conduct (according to a source in the Poroshenko Bloc, the minibus driving around Kyiv, calling for the dismissal of Yarema and his deputy, Bachun, via loudspeaker, was ordered not by Kolomoisky, but by one of these businessmen). These include Maidan activists, who are increasingly asking why the deaths of February 18–20 have remained uninvestigated for a year.
Bankova's irritation
However, even after this, it's too early for the Prosecutor General to panic. Of the 150 deputies in Poroshenko's Bloc, just over 30 have signed for his resignation, while of Yatsenyuk's 82 "Frontovites," only 24 have. This means that the president (who in the fall didn't rule out moving Yarema to the Ministry of Internal Affairs) doesn't yet want to replace the Prosecutor General, and the Prime Minister prefers not to interfere in the matter, understanding that any resignation would upset the fragile personnel balance in power.
However, as a source in the Presidential Administration told us, irritation with Yarema is growing even at the very top: "He must either produce some kind of result on the Maidan murders or resign. Because these questions are being directed not at Yarema, but at the president, and he is being blamed." According to the source, the Prosecutor General has a maximum of three weeks, as the investigation's results will be desperately needed by February 18, the anniversary of the shootings.
House of cards
"Paradoxically, Yarema's war with Kolomoisky is a factor in favor of keeping the Prosecutor General in office," says political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko. "The Dnipropetrovsk governor's interests are certainly present in the current attack on Yarema, although its driving force is, after all, disgruntled revolutionary romantics. However, gathering 226 votes is problematic precisely because the Prosecutor General's resignation would be a clear victory for Kolomoisky, which is an undesirable outcome for all of the oligarch's direct and indirect opponents. Plus, Yarema himself is a non-confrontational person, with good relations with the leaders of the leading factions, who, in turn, understand that the issue is not so much Yarema himself as the Prosecutor General's Office and the lack of political will at the very top."
There are also more pragmatic reasons: the current leaders understand that if they surrender Yarema today, they'll have to surrender Gontareva tomorrow, and then the government will be called upon to decide. Moreover, to maintain balance, Avakov must be removed in exchange for Yarema. In short, everything could crumble like a house of cards, so the only possible reshuffle is for the president to replace Yarema with someone from his own team. But even though Yarema has a good chance of staying in power, he's certainly obliged to deliver some kind of significant result by the anniversary of the Maidan shootings. The trial of two Berkut officers, and possibly the transfer of the Yanukovych case to court. However, such haste, due to pressure, could ultimately backfire on the quality and credibility of the prosecution's case.
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