City Council Secretary Ihor Terekhov is adopting the techniques of the late Mayor Gennady Kernes. Photo: facebook.com/ihor.terekhov
The election campaign for the mayoral seat left vacant by Mayor Gennady Kernes is underway in Kharkiv.
True, only two people who are open about their desire to run and have significant resources are working with voters: City Council Secretary Igor Terekhov, who was Kernes' first deputy until his last re-election, and the former mayor of Kharkiv and former head of the Kharkiv Regional State Administration (RSA) Mikhail Dobkin. While these two are currently vying to become the main competitors for victory, the open struggle between them began almost immediately after Kernes's funeral.
Whose support do they rely on, which of them has the best chance of winning, and whether other candidates can compete with them, was investigated. "A country".
Wall to wall
Dobkin announced his intention to run for Kharkiv mayor in early January. He previously held the position, from 2006 to 2010.
At the time the announcement was made, the possibility of holding early mayoral elections on March 28 remained. Both Dobkin's words and a video released around the same time, in which he appears against a backdrop of footage of Kernes, who calls him "a good manager, a good administrator," were perceived as preparation for the election campaign.
The slogan “We must continue what we started together” that appeared in the video is indeed now being used, albeit in a slightly modified form, in campaigning for Dobkin.
The Rada didn't schedule the elections then, doing so only on March 30, meaning they will be held on October 31. This was a clear signal that the Office of the President, which influences the votes of the Servant of the People majority, did not want a rushed campaign.
Kernes's former circle, which had put Terekhov at the forefront, was also uninterested. He also received the support of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov's group, with whom, incidentally, the current City Council Secretary had once worked.
After Kernes' death, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs significantly increased his influence in the city with which a large part of his life was associated.
A source at the Kharkiv Regional State Administration calls Terekhov a candidate favored not only by friends of the late Kernes, like businessman Pavlo Fuks, but also by Avakov and the Presidential Office. It was precisely to give the current acting mayor more time to establish his authority that the Verkhovna Rada scheduled the elections for October 31st, rather than the end of March.
Kernes's entourage engaged in a heated debate with Dobkin over his advertising. It was clear they viewed him as Terekhov's most dangerous rival, who, like him, wanted to run his election campaign on the city's memory of the popular Kernes.
In an interview, Terekhov directly calls himself the successor to the deceased mayor and attempts to lead city council sessions in a rude manner reminiscent of Kernes.
The struggle between the city council secretary (or rather, the forces supporting him) and Dobkin was contentious from the very beginning. Kharkiv political scientist Anton Avksentyev speaks of the smear campaign employed by both sides.
"A war of ratings (when the media 'hypes' poll results favorable to the candidate – Ed.) and commissioned articles has unfolded. As far as I know, Terekhov tried to pressure Kyiv companies that own advertising space in Kharkiv to reject Dobkin. Nevertheless, there is some campaigning for him in the city, but it's much stronger in the region," the expert commented to Strana.
Let us add that Dobkin can personally “go through” a potential opponent.
For example, on his Telegram channel, he published a post dedicated to the first issue of the newspaper "Dobkin's Time," which he illustrated with a collage of Terekhov's face.
"Everyone reads it, from the youngest to the oldest. The city council even sent a squad of nationalists to get 50 copies. Out of habit, the nationalists doused everything around them with green paint. They're weird people in the city council! We would have given them some anyway. And now we definitely will—newspapers, green paint, and our love," Dobkin wrote.
According to Avksentyev, Secretary Terekhov relies on personal contact with voters. "He holds many meetings around the city and participates in cleanup days. The City Council Secretary is emulating what Kernes did in 2010-12, embracing his image," the expert commented to the publication.
Which approach will be more beneficial remains an open question. Various polls place Dobkin and Terekhov in first place.
A source at a well-known polling firm told Strana that, based on their latest confidential research, Terekhov currently has a slight advantage over Dobkin, with both enjoying very high ratings and a chance of advancing to the second round together. However, Dobkin allegedly has a high negative rating, which could pose a problem in a "duel."
"We've recorded a demand for the continuation of the late mayor's line, for preserving his 'legacy,' but also a demand for changes, new names. In my opinion, Dobkin falls outside this category. Although voters remember him. On the other hand, we don't know how the pandemic will affect the ratings or what the situation in the city will be like by October. Therefore, I won't attempt to predict the election results right now," the source comments.
Sociologists also note a strong overlap between Dobkin's and the Opposition Platform – For Life's voters. Therefore, if the Opposition Platform – For Life party supports Dobkin, it will increase his chances of victory. If the Opposition Platform – For Life nominates its own candidate or endorses Terekhov, it will significantly reduce the former mayor's chances of victory.
But we will discuss the possible choice of the Opposition Platform - For Life below.
It is also worth noting two important factors that will influence the pre-election situation in the first capital.
First, this is the position of Akhmetov and Novinsky's group. Dobkin has been close to them in recent years. But whether Akhmetov will support his mayoral ambitions ahead of the elections remains an open question. According to Strana, both Avakov and the Presidential Office are negotiating with Akhmetov on this matter (to avoid supporting Dobkin).
Secondly, the Kernes family's position. According to people close to the family, Strana is still divided on who to support in the election: Terekhov or Dobkin. Outwardly, the family appears to support Terekhov, but internally, things are not so clear. "But Terekhov and his entourage are working to convince all family members to support him," the source says.
Against this backdrop, rumors periodically surface in Kharkiv's political circles that Terekhov is failing to live up to the expectations of the OP and Avakov and is at risk of losing favor. A source told Strana that this is untrue. Moreover, he claims the Interior Minister's influence group is working hard to ensure the City Council Secretary emerges as the clear frontrunner in the race. "Avakov is 200% committed to Terekhov succeeding," the source says.
Meanwhile, local Telegram channels are reporting that Terekhov is being reinforced by political strategists. These operatives allegedly include Dmitry Kasyanov, who handled the election campaigns of Serhiy Berezenko, a close associate of former President Petro Poroshenko, in 2015, Kyiv developer Maksym Mykytas in 2016, and Dnipro Mayor Borys Filatov in 2020. Kasyanov has already been spotted in Kharkiv. However, the political strategist told Strana that he was there for personal reasons.
“I have no connection with the official campaign of City Council Secretary Terekhov at the moment,” insists Kasyanov.
Mikhail Dobkin wants to continue Kernes's work in Kharkiv. Photo: Mikhail Dobkin's Telegram channel.
The technical candidate from Servant of the People and the ambush regiment of the Opposition Platform - For Life
Now let's move on to other candidates.
A source in the regional state administration doubts that SN will nominate a popular candidate not only because of tacit agreements surrounding Terekhov, but also because he is not present.
"Of course, there are those willing to 'fight' Terekhov—for example, City Council member Alina Mustafayeva (at her request, the National Anti-Corruption Agency recently launched an investigation into Terekhov—Ed.). This is an initiative by some serious people. But I don't believe the party will approve this option. It's impossible to say today who will ultimately be chosen. Most likely, the candidate will be nominated through behind-the-scenes bidding," the source comments.
According to unofficial reports, the local branch of Petro Poroshenko's European Solidarity Party is considering re-nominating Oleh Abramychev, who ran for the party in the last local elections. "However, the city branch of the party is following in Terekhov's footsteps, so the candidate will be discussed at his level as well," says a source among the city council members.
A separate intrigue: will former head of the regional state administration, MP Yulia Svitlychnaya (non-affiliated), run for office? An influential source in Kharkiv's political circles claims she won't: "She has no electoral prospects. By all estimates, she's at 11-12%."
A source close to Svetlichnaya, however, admits that she could "make a splash" as a "young politician with an unblemished reputation." Her nomination, however, is allegedly disadvantageous to Terekhov.
"Dobkin's electorate won't choose her, but Terekhov's might. The latter's is more centrist, with a smaller pro-Russian stance. And if they try to paint him as a 'patriot,' Svetlichnaya will take even more from him. But whether she'll run or not hasn't been decided yet," the source says.
Now about the possible candidate from the Opposition Platform - For Life, which, as mentioned above, could seriously influence the election results.
According to Strana, the party plans to decide on its candidate and overall election strategy closer to August.
According to a party source, Dobkin has been in talks with her, attempting to secure her support, but no decision has been made yet. "We'll decide on a candidate in August," the source said.
Of course, other candidates may emerge.
Rumor has it that one of them could be Yevgeny Murayev, leader of the Nashi party. In a comment to Strana, he said they should wait until the Central Electoral Commission announces the elections.
Indeed, the procedure for calling snap elections has not yet been completed. The Central Election Commission has not yet issued a decision. According to a source within the commission, the reason is that the documents from parliament have not arrived.
"We'll announce it when we have it. It's not us holding up the process, but the Rada. We'll make a decision immediately," the source said.
Meanwhile, candidates are gathering strength before the main "battles" in the country's second city. And it's already clear that we're in for a spectacular political spectacle.
FILE: Yulia Svetlichnaya: The Story of Kharkiv's Kept Governor. Part 1
In topic: Without Kernes. Who can take control of Kharkiv?
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