The National Security and Defense Council's decisions and the sanctions law have proven extremely convenient for the Ukrainian government. Moreover, for the first time in many years, it has taken a tough stance and is unwavering in its decisions. The editor-in-chief's column discusses the potential problems this may pose. RBC-Ukraine Sergei Shcherbina.
"The president is very pleased. He says we've rediscovered the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) tool and will now pursue a tough policy," a source close to Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently told RBC-Ukraine when asked about the current mood at Bankova.
Since early February, the country has been abuzz with announcements of the next meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, with politically savvy citizens scrambling to gather clues about the planned decisions.
And this information is truly scarce. Another advantage of the National Security and Defense Council is that its members are under non-disclosure agreements. This prevents uncontrolled, premature leaks of information about pending decisions. Moreover, even the meeting agendas aren't approved until the very last minute.
Another influential source recently remarked to the publication about new developments in the presidential office: "There's much more certainty."
It's hard to disagree with this statement. But by steamrolling Viktor Medvedchuk and his associates with sanctions, shutting down television channels controlled by this group, and seizing assets previously owned by Russia and "hidden" after the war began, Zelenskyy has also planted seeds of doubt among the most influential people in the country. The question "Who's next" has begun to be heard in every office of any significance.
The Iron Fist of the National Security and Defense Council: The Dangers of the Ukrainian Government's Harsh Decisions
This has also prompted many to take a closer look at the president's recent interviews with Western media, in which Zelenskyy discussed the need to reduce the oligarchs' political influence. War with Russia is one issue, but the oligarchs' influence on foreign and domestic policy, according to the president, is no less significant.
It's not like this is the first time such rhetoric has come from a Ukrainian president. Petro Poroshenko also promised deoligarchization. Viktor Yushchenko announced something similar. Even Viktor Yanukovych has broadcast messages about bringing justice to this environment.
Each of Zelenskyy's predecessors, however, understood justice differently. This resulted in clashes of varying intensity, agreements, and oligarchic wars. The president, however, preferred to rest on his laurels as a popularly elected arbitrator, occasionally intervening proactively in the most pressing issues.
During the existence of the political regime, which Western analysts often call an "oligarchic republic," every Ukrainian government has been guilty of striving to appear rather than to be. Loud talk of justice has been followed by agreements. Evil tongues say that each time, with interest.
The war didn't change this concept much. After all, somehow Rosneft's Ukrainian assets ended up in the hands of a group linked to Medvedchuk during the active fighting? They did. And there are countless examples of this.
It seemed as if the election of President Zelenskyy was a triumph of the most relevant political concept. His campaign revolved around being neither too cold nor too hot, but just warm enough to please everyone. This also predetermined his ratings prospects – any clear positioning meant losing a portion of the electorate.
This is partly what happened. Zelenskyy maintains his leading position in sociology, even as the Opposition Platform – For Life party strengthens its position. After all, the president, for example, has failed to fulfill the secret aspirations of many of his voters, historically aligned with the former Party of Regions, for friendship with Russia.
Likewise, he will likely never be sincerely supported by Petro Poroshenko's most loyal supporters and adherents of nationalist ideas. This didn't stop Zelensky from initiating and implementing harsh measures against one of the leaders of the Opposition Platform - For Life party.
The Iron Fist of the National Security and Defense Council: The Dangers of the Ukrainian Government's Harsh Decisions
For the first time in many years, the government has demonstrated a desire to be, rather than merely appear, making tough decisions and seeing them through to completion. Moreover, these are decisions that even many opponents of the government consider to be in the interests of Ukrainian statehood. And they have announced a continuation of the policy of imposing justice with the iron hand of the National Security and Defense Council.
But there are three problems behind all this.
First. One influential source told RBC-Ukraine this way: "Remember the story of Baba Yaga? They've already put Igor Valerievich on a shovel. They're not carrying him to the stove yet, but they might soon." It's unlikely anyone will sit quietly on a shovel.
It's foolish to think that current and future victims of the government's harsh decisions will calmly go to the scaffold. They will resist, and their resistance will be fierce, if not brutal. The goal of "preservation" always justifies the means.
The second problem lies in the word "justice." Just as every president has understood justice differently, so too does every citizen. Imposing justice through extrajudicial means can easily lead to pure Bolshevism. Which, let's be honest, is very much a part of Ukrainian society.
Rules are far from always fair. When making "political and legal decisions," the authorities are making decisions that are neither political nor legal, even if these decisions are dictated by military or other vital necessity. The argument that "there is no credible court in the country" falls flat when we consider the possibility and permissibility of extrajudicial executions. After all, a bad court is better than no court at all.
There's no doubt that those found financing terrorism or engaging in any other form of relations with terrorist organizations, as well as assisting the aggressor, must be punished. But the legal status of the war also requires resolution. After all, legal inconsistency is just as dangerous.
Structural legislative changes, carried out according to procedure and carefully thought out, are certainly time-consuming and tedious. But without them, another extremely unpleasant precedent could be created. We can assume that the current government is good, kind, and the fairest in the world, trusting it to make swift and tough decisions at its own discretion. But what will the next government be like, one that takes advantage of these precedents?
The third problem is the most important. The concept of "appearing, not being" is the be-all and end-all of political life in Ukraine. No one knows how to work any other way. And that would be half the problem.
This is essentially how Ukrainian society operates. The average voter often espouses the same philosophy in their everyday lives. Roughly speaking, they hate the local bribe-taking prosecutor, but use every available means to "enroll" their child in law school, because they can later make money by becoming a prosecutor.
In this sense, the political class in Ukraine is a direct extension of society. The upside is that the country remains democratic. But what it will become when the political class, on its own initiative, disrupts the established order, not just years, but centuries in the making—no one knows.
This doesn't mean this order shouldn't be changed. It should, otherwise Ukraine will not only be unable to resist external aggression, but also risks suffering greatly from the internal contradictions that have been riven it for years. These contradictions are regularly exploited by anyone and everyone to achieve their own ends.
But when changing the way of life, we must remember that democracy is first about law and procedure, and only then does justice come. Not immediately.
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