The social-populist themes embraced by Batkivshchyna promise a boost to its leader's approval ratings. However, it seems that Tymoshenko's political strategies are motivated by a desire to keep things the same.
Tariff Maidan
Yulia Volodymyrivna once again has a chance to destabilize the situation in the country for early parliamentary elections. Tymoshenko has already expressed her intention to challenge the tariff hike in court. Batkivshchyna's court appeal is a political ploy. Its goal is simple: if the court denies the case, the plaintiffs will shift all the blame to the government and the oligarchs. Meanwhile, while the courts consider Batkivshchyna's complaint, the "white-hearted" party will be able to go on television to talk about how they fight for the people. And how the government is hindering them. Simply put, it's not so much the result that matters, but the process, the image. And what image is there without extras?
It's quite possible that we'll witness attempts to organize social protests this fall. Much depends on the government's swift response—there's still time for those plotting an "anti-tariff Maidan" to have minimal room for maneuver and limited opportunities to stoke fears.
Village Defense
Tymoshenko's second most important front is opposing decentralization. Recently, the Batkivshchyna leader stated that the ongoing process of amalgamating small villages is leading to the extinction of the Ukrainian provinces. As an experienced politician, Yulia Volodymyrivna always has an alternative solution, packaged attractively for the electorate. In this case, she proposed allocating budget funds to support small villages. However, it's unclear what exactly the money would be used for, given that small villages are often impossible to revive.
But with the right "seasoning"—like "we won't let the school and first aid station close"—villages will appreciate Tymoshenko's "dish." Especially since her faction has a specialist in "seasoning" for the rural population: Vadym Ivchenko, who, before being elected to parliament, served as head of the executive board of the All-Ukrainian Association of Village and Settlement Councils. Thus, Batkivshchyna has its own "soldiers" among village mayors, whom decentralization deprives of exclusive influence on land issues.
Settlers
Outside the Ministry of Social Policy, displaced persons demanded immediate housing for internally displaced persons, the adoption of a law providing full financial compensation for housing and property lost due to military action in the ATO zone, the right to vote in elections at all levels of government, and so on. During the protest, as a reminder, the protesters broke turnstiles. This was widely and enthusiastically reported by Russian media.
A rally with exactly the same demands was held outside the Cabinet of Ministers building on Hrushevsky Street. This rally was attended by MPs from Yulia Tymoshenko's faction, Hryhoriy Nemyria and Oleksiy Riabchyn. They oversee IDP issues in the Batkivshchyna party, particularly Nemyria, as head of the human rights committee. It's difficult to say whether these MPs are connected to their fellow countrymen. However, it's clear that Yulia Tymoshenko has taken seriously the task of attracting IDPs to her side. Will this front yield many dividends? Let's put it this way: it will definitely diminish support for the government.
Miners
Incidentally, the protest outside the Ministry of Social Policy also had its own radical twist: a group of disabled miners stormed the building and declared a hunger strike. The miners demanded a recalculation of monthly insurance payments and the modernization of pensions. Their spokesman, as usual, was Mykhailo Volynets, chairman of the Independent Miners' Trade Union. When miners first protested in Kyiv after the Maidan, Volynets was accused of collaborating with Rinat Akhmetov. This time, they were suspected of amplifying the impact of the IDPs' protest.
Although the Opposition Bloc immediately stood up for the miners, it should not be forgotten that the head of the trade union was a people's deputy three times and always represented the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc.
Incidentally, the bill (No. 4015), which the regressors are demanding support for, has already passed all committees, and there's even a draft resolution on adopting the document as a basis. Who needed the special effects of miners' hunger strikes? Those who want to reinforce the message to citizens every day: everything is bad here.
Tomorrow's pensioners
Tymoshenko's other front is the fight against raising the retirement age. It's not expected to happen anytime soon, but thanks to Leszek Balcerowicz's out-of-place statement, the old story about whether to send the IMF with its demands is getting a new twist. The IMF isn't demanding anything yet, but that's irrelevant. The phrase "the government plans to raise the retirement age," coupled with anti-tariff rhetoric, will sound like a death sentence.
Central Election Commission
The absence of Batkivshchyna protégés from the Central Election Commission proposed for parliamentary consideration, if supported by deputies, will certainly become yet another front for Tymoshenko's party. Of course, this isn't about tariffs or even miners. But in the long run, it's a very fertile topic. Batkivshchyna will convince the public that there's no point in hoping for elections free of fraud. The danger of such a strategy is the discrediting of the results of any election before it even takes place.
War
Tymoshenko talks little about the war. She talks about the release of our prisoners, but prefers not to elaborate on options for ending the conflict in the east. This can be explained by the fact that this topic won't do much for her ratings. However, it could do harm. This is hinted at by experts who were taken aback by some of Nadiya Savchenko's statements. Sooner or later, voters will demand a clear answer from Tymoshenko: does she agree with the statement that LNR leader Plotnitsky isn't all that bad, or is this Savchenko's own opinion?
Another explanation for the Batkivshchyna leader's lack of military rhetoric is that no matter how the conflict in Donbas is resolved, there will always be dissatisfied people. So, a strategy will be developed for them along the way.
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